Adana Demirspor 2–1 Osmanlispor: Result & Stats

Adana Demirspor

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Osmanlispor

6/22/2020

1. Lig · Round 29

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 52+ matches

Adana Demirspor41%

×Draw24%

Osmanlispor35%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Adana DemirsporExpected goals in this matchOsmanlispor

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.60

1.46

Adana Demirspor

1.60

Osmanlispor

1.46

Adana Demirspor creates 10% more chances

Season form · 73 home / 52 away

1.74

creates per match

1.10

1.82

allows per match

1.46

creates per match

Adana Demirspor

1.74

Osmanlispor

1.10

allows per match

Adana Demirspor

1.82

Osmanlispor

1.46

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Adana Demirspor+0.00on par

Osmanlispor+0.00on par

Total goals

Over59
Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes61
No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Adana Demirspor ↓

Osmanlispor →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–17%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–111%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

59%41%3.5

36%64%4.5

19%81%

Double chance

Adana Demirspor or draw

65%

Adana Demirspor or Osmanlispor

76%

Draw or Osmanlispor

59%

Winning margin

Adana Demirspor wins by 2+

21%

Osmanlispor wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Adana Demirspor 1+ goals

80%

Adana Demirspor 2+ goals

47%

Adana Demirspor 3+ goals

22%

Osmanlispor 1+ goals

77%

Osmanlispor 2+ goals

43%

Osmanlispor 3+ goals

18%

Draw no bet

Adana Demirspor (draw refunded)

54%

Osmanlispor (draw refunded)

46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

50%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Adana Demirspor at home — creates 1.74, concedes 1.82 · 73 matches

Osmanlispor away — creates 1.10, concedes 1.46 · 52 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Adana Demirspor attack 1.74 + Osmanlispor defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.60

Osmanlispor attack 1.10 + Adana Demirspor defence 1.82 → ÷2 → 1.46

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Adana Demirspor scores more

41%

level

24%

Osmanlispor scores more

35%

Adana Demirspor at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Adana Demirspor will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff