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Adana Demirspor vs Nazilli Spor — Türkiye Kupası 2018

Adana Demirspor
Adana Demirspor
FT
4 – 3
HT: 2 – 2
Nazilli Spor
Nazilli Spor
B. Assombalonga 90+6' (pen), 51', 29' (pen), 15'
F. Apaydın 63'
Ş. Kılıçaslan 34'
B. Aydoğmuş 13'
11/8/2022Türkiye KupasıTürkiye Kupası · 4th RoundYeni Adana Stadyumu

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Adana Demirspor76%
×Draw14%
Nazilli Spor10%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Adana Demirspor
2.92
Nazilli Spor
1.00

Adana Demirspor creates 192% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 6 away

creates per match

Adana Demirspor
3.33
Nazilli Spor
1.00

allows per match

Adana Demirspor
1.00
Nazilli Spor
2.50

finishing

Adana Demirspor+0.00on par
Nazilli Spor+0.00on par

Total goals

74%Over
  • Over74
  • Under26

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Adana Demirspor ↓

Nazilli Spor →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–12%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–06%
1–16%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–18%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–06%
4–16%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (9%) · grid covers 85% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
90%10%2.5
74%26%3.5
54%46%4.5
34%66%

Double chance

Adana Demirspor or draw
90%
Adana Demirspor or Nazilli Spor
86%
Draw or Nazilli Spor
24%

Winning margin

Adana Demirspor wins by 2+
56%
Nazilli Spor wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Adana Demirspor 1+ goals
94%
Adana Demirspor 2+ goals
78%
Adana Demirspor 3+ goals
55%
Nazilli Spor 1+ goals
63%
Nazilli Spor 2+ goals
26%
Nazilli Spor 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Adana Demirspor (draw refunded)
88%
Nazilli Spor (draw refunded)
12%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
54%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Adana Demirspor at home — creates 3.33, concedes 1.00 · 9 matches

Nazilli Spor away — creates 1.00, concedes 2.50 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Adana Demirspor attack 3.33 + Nazilli Spor defence 2.50 → ÷2 → 2.92

Nazilli Spor attack 1.00 + Adana Demirspor defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 76%?"

Adana Demirspor scores more
76%
level
14%
Nazilli Spor scores more
10%

Adana Demirspor at 76% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 76% does not mean "Adana Demirspor will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

5'
C. Bulbul
13'
B. Aydoğmuş
15'
B. Assombalonga
27'
Ş. Kılıçaslan← H. Çolak
29'
B. AssombalongaPenalty
34'
Ş. Kılıçaslan
46'
S. Güler← Y. Rakitskiy
46'
H. Onyekuru← B. Yıldız
46'
S. Nongoh← G. Töre
48'
A. Dursun
51'
B. Assombalonga
60'
B. Bjarnason
63'
F. Apaydın
71'
S. Kavrazlı← E. Öztümer
82'
M. Estik← N. Çağlar
90+5'
D. Nelik
90+5'
M. Ersavas
90+1'
M. Kapı← G. İnler
90'
M. Ersavaş← B. Aydoğmuş
90+6'
B. AssombalongaPenalty

Statistics

AdanaNazilli
Overview
10Corners2
Discipline
2Yellow Cards3

Türkiye Kupası: Adana Demirspor 4–3 Nazilli Spor

Adana Demirspor beat Nazilli Spor 4-3 in Türkiye Kupası on November 8, 2022.

Goals: B. Aydoğmuş (13'), B. Assombalonga (15', 29' pen, 51', 90+6' pen), Ş. Kılıçaslan (34'), F. Apaydın (63').

The match was played at Yeni Adana Stadyumu in Adana.