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Adana Demirspor vs Kardemir Karabukspor — 1. Lig 2018

Adana Demirspor
Adana Demirspor
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Kardemir Karabukspor
Kardemir Karabukspor
1/18/20191. Lig1. Lig · Round 185 Ocak Fatih Terim Stadyumu

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Adana Demirspor75%
×Draw14%
Kardemir Karabukspor10%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Adana Demirspor
2.90
Kardemir Karabukspor
1.00

Adana Demirspor creates 190% more chances

Season form · 73 home / 17 away

creates per match

Adana Demirspor
1.74
Kardemir Karabukspor
0.18

allows per match

Adana Demirspor
1.82
Kardemir Karabukspor
4.06

finishing

Adana Demirspor+0.00on par
Kardemir Karabukspor+0.00on par

Total goals

74%Over
  • Over74
  • Under26

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Adana Demirspor ↓

Kardemir Karabukspor →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–12%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–06%
1–16%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–18%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–06%
4–16%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (9%) · grid covers 85% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
90%10%2.5
74%26%3.5
53%47%4.5
33%67%

Double chance

Adana Demirspor or draw
90%
Adana Demirspor or Kardemir Karabukspor
86%
Draw or Kardemir Karabukspor
25%

Winning margin

Adana Demirspor wins by 2+
55%
Kardemir Karabukspor wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Adana Demirspor 1+ goals
94%
Adana Demirspor 2+ goals
78%
Adana Demirspor 3+ goals
54%
Kardemir Karabukspor 1+ goals
63%
Kardemir Karabukspor 2+ goals
26%
Kardemir Karabukspor 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Adana Demirspor (draw refunded)
88%
Kardemir Karabukspor (draw refunded)
12%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
54%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Adana Demirspor at home — creates 1.74, concedes 1.82 · 73 matches

Kardemir Karabukspor away — creates 0.18, concedes 4.06 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Adana Demirspor attack 1.74 + Kardemir Karabukspor defence 4.06 → ÷2 → 2.90

Kardemir Karabukspor attack 0.18 + Adana Demirspor defence 1.82 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 75%?"

Adana Demirspor scores more
75%
level
14%
Kardemir Karabukspor scores more
10%

Adana Demirspor at 75% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 75% does not mean "Adana Demirspor will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Adana Demirspor vs Kardemir Karabukspor

Adana Demirspor beat Kardemir Karabukspor 1-0 in 1. Lig on January 18, 2019.

The match was played at 5 Ocak Fatih Terim Stadyumu in Adana.