Adana Demirspor 4–2 Giresunspor: Result & Stats

Adana Demirspor

FT

4 – 2

HT: 2 – 0

Giresunspor

H. Traoré 69'

V. Şen 51'

P. Dibba 29'

J. Rassoul 27'

R. Rusescu 79'

G. Landel 67'

6/27/2020

1. Lig · Round 30

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 69+ matches

Adana Demirspor41%

×Draw24%

Giresunspor35%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Adana DemirsporExpected goals in this matchGiresunspor

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.63

1.48

Adana Demirspor

1.63

Giresunspor

1.48

Adana Demirspor creates 10% more chances

Season form · 69 home / 69 away

1.74

creates per match

1.00

1.96

allows per match

1.51

creates per match

Adana Demirspor

1.74

Giresunspor

1.00

allows per match

Adana Demirspor

1.96

Giresunspor

1.51

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Adana Demirspor+0.00on par

Giresunspor+0.00on par

Total goals

Over60
Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes62
No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Adana Demirspor ↓

Giresunspor →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–17%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–111%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

60%40%3.5

38%62%4.5

20%80%

Double chance

Adana Demirspor or draw

65%

Adana Demirspor or Giresunspor

76%

Draw or Giresunspor

59%

Winning margin

Adana Demirspor wins by 2+

21%

Giresunspor wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Adana Demirspor 1+ goals

80%

Adana Demirspor 2+ goals

48%

Adana Demirspor 3+ goals

22%

Giresunspor 1+ goals

77%

Giresunspor 2+ goals

43%

Giresunspor 3+ goals

19%

Draw no bet

Adana Demirspor (draw refunded)

54%

Giresunspor (draw refunded)

46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

51%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Adana Demirspor at home — creates 1.74, concedes 1.96 · 69 matches

Giresunspor away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.51 · 69 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Adana Demirspor attack 1.74 + Giresunspor defence 1.51 → ÷2 → 1.63

Giresunspor attack 1.00 + Adana Demirspor defence 1.96 → ÷2 → 1.48

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Adana Demirspor scores more

41%

level

24%

Giresunspor scores more

35%

Adana Demirspor at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Adana Demirspor will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

22'

27'

29'

39'

46'

A. Özek← M. Milinković

46'

Renan Foguinho← M. Güven

47'

H. Traore

49'

V. Sen

51'

V. Şen↳ P. Dibba

58'

H. Kilic

61'

M. Akca

65'

J. K. Rassoul

66'

M. Oktay← Y. Del Valle

66'

67'

69'

74'

79'

80'

80'

T. Sanuç← M. Mitrović

85'

G. Landel

89'

I. Koné← Mehmet Akyüz

89'

T. Altındağ← P. Dibba

Possession

Shots

Statistics

AdanaGiresunspor

Overview

55%Possession45%

11Total Shots4

3Corners1

12Fouls12

Shots

11Total Shots4

6On Target4

5Off Target0

Passing

55%Possession45%

Goalkeeping

2Saves2

Discipline

12Fouls12

4Yellow Cards2

0Red Cards1

1Offsides0