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Adana Demirspor vs Gençlerbirliği S.K. — 1. Lig 2018

Adana Demirspor
Adana Demirspor
FT
2 – 3
HT: 1 – 1
Gençlerbirliği S.K.
Gençlerbirliği S.K.
12/23/20181. Lig1. Lig · Round 175 Ocak Fatih Terim Stadyumu

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 73+ matches

Adana Demirspor37%
×Draw24%
Gençlerbirliği S.K.39%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Adana Demirspor
1.50
Gençlerbirliği S.K.
1.54

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 73 home / 89 away

creates per match

Adana Demirspor
1.74
Gençlerbirliği S.K.
1.26

allows per match

Adana Demirspor
1.82
Gençlerbirliği S.K.
1.25

finishing

Adana Demirspor+0.00on par
Gençlerbirliği S.K.+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Adana Demirspor ↓

Gençlerbirliği S.K. →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–29%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
58%42%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Adana Demirspor or draw
61%
Adana Demirspor or Gençlerbirliği S.K.
76%
Draw or Gençlerbirliği S.K.
63%

Winning margin

Adana Demirspor wins by 2+
18%
Gençlerbirliği S.K. wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Adana Demirspor 1+ goals
78%
Adana Demirspor 2+ goals
44%
Adana Demirspor 3+ goals
19%
Gençlerbirliği S.K. 1+ goals
79%
Gençlerbirliği S.K. 2+ goals
45%
Gençlerbirliği S.K. 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

Adana Demirspor (draw refunded)
49%
Gençlerbirliği S.K. (draw refunded)
51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Adana Demirspor at home — creates 1.74, concedes 1.82 · 73 matches

Gençlerbirliği S.K. away — creates 1.26, concedes 1.25 · 89 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Adana Demirspor attack 1.74 + Gençlerbirliği S.K. defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.50

Gençlerbirliği S.K. attack 1.26 + Adana Demirspor defence 1.82 → ÷2 → 1.54

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Adana Demirspor scores more
37%
level
24%
Gençlerbirliği S.K. scores more
39%

Gençlerbirliği S.K. at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Gençlerbirliği S.K. will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

1. Lig: Adana Demirspor 2–3 Gençlerbirliği S.K.

Gençlerbirliği S.K. beat Adana Demirspor 3-2 in 1. Lig on December 23, 2018.

The match was played at 5 Ocak Fatih Terim Stadyumu in Adana.