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Adana Demirspor vs Gaziantep FK — 1. Lig 2018

Adana Demirspor
Adana Demirspor
FT
3 – 2
HT: 2 – 1
Gaziantep FK
Gaziantep FK
2/2/20191. Lig1. Lig · Round 205 Ocak Fatih Terim Stadyumu

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Adana Demirspor27%
×Draw22%
Gaziantep FK51%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Adana Demirspor
1.34
Gaziantep FK
1.91

Gaziantep FK creates 43% more chances

Season form · 73 home / 17 away

creates per match

Adana Demirspor
1.74
Gaziantep FK
2.00

allows per match

Adana Demirspor
1.82
Gaziantep FK
0.94

finishing

Adana Demirspor+0.00on par
Gaziantep FK+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Over
  • Over63
  • Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Adana Demirspor ↓

Gaziantep FK →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–17%
0–27%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–05%
1–110%
1–210%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–17%
2–26%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
63%37%3.5
41%59%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

Adana Demirspor or draw
49%
Adana Demirspor or Gaziantep FK
78%
Draw or Gaziantep FK
73%

Winning margin

Adana Demirspor wins by 2+
12%
Gaziantep FK wins by 2+
29%

Team goals

Adana Demirspor 1+ goals
74%
Adana Demirspor 2+ goals
39%
Adana Demirspor 3+ goals
15%
Gaziantep FK 1+ goals
85%
Gaziantep FK 2+ goals
57%
Gaziantep FK 3+ goals
30%

Draw no bet

Adana Demirspor (draw refunded)
35%
Gaziantep FK (draw refunded)
65%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
53%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Adana Demirspor at home — creates 1.74, concedes 1.82 · 73 matches

Gaziantep FK away — creates 2.00, concedes 0.94 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Adana Demirspor attack 1.74 + Gaziantep FK defence 0.94 → ÷2 → 1.34

Gaziantep FK attack 2.00 + Adana Demirspor defence 1.82 → ÷2 → 1.91

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Adana Demirspor scores more
27%
level
22%
Gaziantep FK scores more
51%

Gaziantep FK at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Gaziantep FK will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Adana Demirspor vs Gaziantep FK

Adana Demirspor beat Gaziantep FK 3-2 in 1. Lig on February 2, 2019.

The match was played at 5 Ocak Fatih Terim Stadyumu in Adana.