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Adana Demirspor vs Çorum FK — 1. Lig 2018

Adana Demirspor
Adana Demirspor
FT
0 – 3
HT: 0 – 2
Çorum FK
Çorum FK
8/16/20251. Lig1. Lig · Round 2Yeni Adana Stadyumu

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 57+ matches

Adana Demirspor35%
×Draw24%
Çorum FK41%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Adana Demirspor
1.46
Çorum FK
1.58

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 73 home / 57 away

creates per match

Adana Demirspor
1.74
Çorum FK
1.35

allows per match

Adana Demirspor
1.82
Çorum FK
1.18

finishing

Adana Demirspor+0.00on par
Çorum FK+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Adana Demirspor ↓

Çorum FK →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–18%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
58%42%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Adana Demirspor or draw
59%
Adana Demirspor or Çorum FK
76%
Draw or Çorum FK
65%

Winning margin

Adana Demirspor wins by 2+
16%
Çorum FK wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

Adana Demirspor 1+ goals
77%
Adana Demirspor 2+ goals
43%
Adana Demirspor 3+ goals
18%
Çorum FK 1+ goals
79%
Çorum FK 2+ goals
47%
Çorum FK 3+ goals
21%

Draw no bet

Adana Demirspor (draw refunded)
47%
Çorum FK (draw refunded)
53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Adana Demirspor at home — creates 1.74, concedes 1.82 · 73 matches

Çorum FK away — creates 1.35, concedes 1.18 · 57 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Adana Demirspor attack 1.74 + Çorum FK defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.46

Çorum FK attack 1.35 + Adana Demirspor defence 1.82 → ÷2 → 1.58

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Adana Demirspor scores more
35%
level
24%
Çorum FK scores more
41%

Çorum FK at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Çorum FK will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Adana Demirspor vs Çorum FK

Çorum FK beat Adana Demirspor 3-0 in 1. Lig on August 16, 2025.

The match was played at Yeni Adana Stadyumu in Adana.