Adana Demirspor 3–1 Alanya 1221 FK: Result & Stats

Adana Demirspor

FT

3 – 1

HT: 2 – 0

Alanya 1221 FK

11/4/2020

Türkiye Kupası · 3rd Round5 Ocak Fatih Terim Stadyumu

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Adana Demirspor76%

×Draw14%

Alanya 1221 FK10%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Adana DemirsporExpected goals in this matchAlanya 1221 FK

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.92

1.00

Adana Demirspor

2.92

Alanya 1221 FK

1.00

Adana Demirspor creates 192% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 6 away

3.33

creates per match

1.00

allows per match

2.50

creates per match

Adana Demirspor

3.33

Alanya 1221 FK

1.00

allows per match

Adana Demirspor

1.00

Alanya 1221 FK

2.50

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Adana Demirspor+0.00on par

Alanya 1221 FK+0.00on par

Total goals

Over74
Under26

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes60
No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Adana Demirspor ↓

Alanya 1221 FK →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–12%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–06%

1–16%

1–23%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–08%

3–18%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–06%

4–16%

4–23%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (9%) · grid covers 85% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

90%10%2.5

74%26%3.5

54%46%4.5

34%66%

Double chance

Adana Demirspor or draw

90%

Adana Demirspor or Alanya 1221 FK

86%

Draw or Alanya 1221 FK

24%

Winning margin

Adana Demirspor wins by 2+

56%

Alanya 1221 FK wins by 2+

3%

Team goals

Adana Demirspor 1+ goals

94%

Adana Demirspor 2+ goals

78%

Adana Demirspor 3+ goals

55%

Alanya 1221 FK 1+ goals

63%

Alanya 1221 FK 2+ goals

26%

Alanya 1221 FK 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Adana Demirspor (draw refunded)

88%

Alanya 1221 FK (draw refunded)

12%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

54%

Both score & under 3

6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Adana Demirspor at home — creates 3.33, concedes 1.00 · 9 matches

Alanya 1221 FK away — creates 1.00, concedes 2.50 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Adana Demirspor attack 3.33 + Alanya 1221 FK defence 2.50 → ÷2 → 2.92

Alanya 1221 FK attack 1.00 + Adana Demirspor defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 76%?"

Adana Demirspor scores more

76%

level

14%

Alanya 1221 FK scores more

10%

Adana Demirspor at 76% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 76% does not mean "Adana Demirspor will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff