Adana Demirspor 5–0 Adıyaman 1954: Result & Stats

Adana Demirspor

FT

5 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Adıyaman 1954

10/18/2022

Türkiye Kupası · 3rd RoundYeni Adana Stadyumu

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Adana Demirspor70%

×Draw16%

Adıyaman 195414%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Adana DemirsporExpected goals in this matchAdıyaman 1954

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.77

1.20

Adana Demirspor

2.77

Adıyaman 1954

1.20

Adana Demirspor creates 131% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 5 away

3.33

creates per match

1.40

1.00

allows per match

2.20

creates per match

Adana Demirspor

3.33

Adıyaman 1954

1.40

allows per match

Adana Demirspor

1.00

Adıyaman 1954

2.20

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Adana Demirspor+0.00on par

Adıyaman 1954+0.00on par

Total goals

Over75
Under25

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes65
No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Adana Demirspor ↓

Adıyaman 1954 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–12%

0–21%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–05%

1–16%

1–24%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–07%

3–18%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–05%

4–16%

4–23%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 87% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

90%10%2.5

75%25%3.5

55%45%4.5

35%65%

Double chance

Adana Demirspor or draw

86%

Adana Demirspor or Adıyaman 1954

84%

Draw or Adıyaman 1954

30%

Winning margin

Adana Demirspor wins by 2+

49%

Adıyaman 1954 wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

Adana Demirspor 1+ goals

94%

Adana Demirspor 2+ goals

76%

Adana Demirspor 3+ goals

51%

Adıyaman 1954 1+ goals

70%

Adıyaman 1954 2+ goals

34%

Adıyaman 1954 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Adana Demirspor (draw refunded)

83%

Adıyaman 1954 (draw refunded)

17%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

59%

Both score & under 3

6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Adana Demirspor at home — creates 3.33, concedes 1.00 · 9 matches

Adıyaman 1954 away — creates 1.40, concedes 2.20 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Adana Demirspor attack 3.33 + Adıyaman 1954 defence 2.20 → ÷2 → 2.77

Adıyaman 1954 attack 1.40 + Adana Demirspor defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.20

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 70%?"

Adana Demirspor scores more

70%

level

16%

Adıyaman 1954 scores more

14%

Adana Demirspor at 70% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 70% does not mean "Adana Demirspor will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff