Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Adamstown Rosebuds vs Valentine — Northern NSW NPL 2026

Adamstown Rosebuds
Adamstown Rosebuds
FT
0 – 3
HT: 0 – 1
Valentine
Valentine
3/9/2024Northern NSW NPLNorthern NSW NPL · Round 3Adamstown Oval

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 76+ matches

Adamstown Rosebuds33%
×Draw23%
Valentine44%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Adamstown Rosebuds
1.50
Valentine
1.78

Valentine creates 19% more chances

Season form · 76 home / 77 away

creates per match

Adamstown Rosebuds
0.96
Valentine
1.26

allows per match

Adamstown Rosebuds
2.30
Valentine
2.05

finishing

Adamstown Rosebuds+0.00on par
Valentine+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Over
  • Over64
  • Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

65%Yes
  • Yes65
  • No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Adamstown Rosebuds ↓

Valentine →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–17%
0–26%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
64%36%3.5
41%59%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

Adamstown Rosebuds or draw
56%
Adamstown Rosebuds or Valentine
77%
Draw or Valentine
67%

Winning margin

Adamstown Rosebuds wins by 2+
15%
Valentine wins by 2+
24%

Team goals

Adamstown Rosebuds 1+ goals
78%
Adamstown Rosebuds 2+ goals
44%
Adamstown Rosebuds 3+ goals
19%
Valentine 1+ goals
83%
Valentine 2+ goals
53%
Valentine 3+ goals
26%

Draw no bet

Adamstown Rosebuds (draw refunded)
42%
Valentine (draw refunded)
58%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
54%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Adamstown Rosebuds at home — creates 0.96, concedes 2.30 · 76 matches

Valentine away — creates 1.26, concedes 2.05 · 77 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Adamstown Rosebuds attack 0.96 + Valentine defence 2.05 → ÷2 → 1.50

Valentine attack 1.26 + Adamstown Rosebuds defence 2.30 → ÷2 → 1.78

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Adamstown Rosebuds scores more
33%
level
23%
Valentine scores more
44%

Valentine at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Valentine will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Northern NSW NPL: Adamstown Rosebuds 0–3 Valentine

Valentine beat Adamstown Rosebuds 3-0 in Northern NSW NPL on March 9, 2024.

The match was played at Adamstown Oval in Newcastle.