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Adamstown Rosebuds vs New Lambton — Northern NSW NPL 2026

Adamstown Rosebuds
Adamstown Rosebuds
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
New Lambton
New Lambton
8/10/2025Northern NSW NPLNorthern NSW NPL · Round 22Lake Macquarie Regional Football Facility Field 2

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 33+ matches

Adamstown Rosebuds38%
×Draw24%
New Lambton39%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Adamstown Rosebuds
1.58
New Lambton
1.60

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 76 home / 33 away

creates per match

Adamstown Rosebuds
0.96
New Lambton
0.91

allows per match

Adamstown Rosebuds
2.30
New Lambton
2.21

finishing

Adamstown Rosebuds+0.00on par
New Lambton+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Adamstown Rosebuds ↓

New Lambton →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–17%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
61%39%3.5
39%61%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Adamstown Rosebuds or draw
61%
Adamstown Rosebuds or New Lambton
76%
Draw or New Lambton
62%

Winning margin

Adamstown Rosebuds wins by 2+
19%
New Lambton wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Adamstown Rosebuds 1+ goals
79%
Adamstown Rosebuds 2+ goals
47%
Adamstown Rosebuds 3+ goals
21%
New Lambton 1+ goals
80%
New Lambton 2+ goals
47%
New Lambton 3+ goals
22%

Draw no bet

Adamstown Rosebuds (draw refunded)
49%
New Lambton (draw refunded)
51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
53%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Adamstown Rosebuds at home — creates 0.96, concedes 2.30 · 76 matches

New Lambton away — creates 0.91, concedes 2.21 · 33 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Adamstown Rosebuds attack 0.96 + New Lambton defence 2.21 → ÷2 → 1.58

New Lambton attack 0.91 + Adamstown Rosebuds defence 2.30 → ÷2 → 1.60

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Adamstown Rosebuds scores more
38%
level
24%
New Lambton scores more
39%

New Lambton at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "New Lambton will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Adamstown Rosebuds 2 – 1 New Lambton

Adamstown Rosebuds beat New Lambton 2-1 in Northern NSW NPL on August 10, 2025.

The match was played at Lake Macquarie Regional Football Facility Field 2 in Newcastle.