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Adamstown Rosebuds vs Charlestown City Blues — Northern NSW NPL 2026

Adamstown Rosebuds
Adamstown Rosebuds
FT
0 – 3
HT: 0 – 2
Charlestown City Blues
Charlestown City Blues
3/2/2024Northern NSW NPLNorthern NSW NPL · Round 2Adamstown Oval

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 76+ matches

Adamstown Rosebuds23%
×Draw22%
Charlestown City Blues55%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Adamstown Rosebuds
1.19
Charlestown City Blues
1.94

Charlestown City Blues creates 63% more chances

Season form · 76 home / 81 away

creates per match

Adamstown Rosebuds
0.96
Charlestown City Blues
1.59

allows per match

Adamstown Rosebuds
2.30
Charlestown City Blues
1.42

finishing

Adamstown Rosebuds+0.00on par
Charlestown City Blues+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Adamstown Rosebuds ↓

Charlestown City Blues →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–19%
0–28%
0–35%
0–43%
1
1–05%
1–110%
1–210%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–26%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
60%40%3.5
38%62%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Adamstown Rosebuds or draw
45%
Adamstown Rosebuds or Charlestown City Blues
78%
Draw or Charlestown City Blues
77%

Winning margin

Adamstown Rosebuds wins by 2+
9%
Charlestown City Blues wins by 2+
32%

Team goals

Adamstown Rosebuds 1+ goals
70%
Adamstown Rosebuds 2+ goals
33%
Adamstown Rosebuds 3+ goals
12%
Charlestown City Blues 1+ goals
86%
Charlestown City Blues 2+ goals
58%
Charlestown City Blues 3+ goals
30%

Draw no bet

Adamstown Rosebuds (draw refunded)
30%
Charlestown City Blues (draw refunded)
70%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Adamstown Rosebuds at home — creates 0.96, concedes 2.30 · 76 matches

Charlestown City Blues away — creates 1.59, concedes 1.42 · 81 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Adamstown Rosebuds attack 0.96 + Charlestown City Blues defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.19

Charlestown City Blues attack 1.59 + Adamstown Rosebuds defence 2.30 → ÷2 → 1.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Adamstown Rosebuds scores more
23%
level
22%
Charlestown City Blues scores more
55%

Charlestown City Blues at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Charlestown City Blues will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Northern NSW NPL: Adamstown Rosebuds 0–3 Charlestown City Blues

Charlestown City Blues beat Adamstown Rosebuds 3-0 in Northern NSW NPL on March 2, 2024.

The match was played at Adamstown Oval in Newcastle.