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Adamawa United vs Lobi Stars — NPFL 2019

Adamawa United
Adamawa United
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Lobi Stars
Lobi Stars
2/25/2021NPFLNPFL · Round 12Pantami Township Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 32+ matches

Adamawa United47%
×Draw30%
Lobi Stars22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Adamawa United
1.20
Lobi Stars
0.72

Adamawa United creates 67% more chances

Season form · 32 home / 114 away

creates per match

Adamawa United
0.94
Lobi Stars
0.53

allows per match

Adamawa United
0.91
Lobi Stars
1.46

finishing

Adamawa United+0.00on par
Lobi Stars+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Under
  • Under70
  • Over30

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

64%No
  • No64
  • Yes36

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Adamawa United ↓

Lobi Stars →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–015%
0–111%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–018%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (18%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
85%15%1.5
57%43%2.5
30%70%3.5
13%87%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Adamawa United or draw
78%
Adamawa United or Lobi Stars
70%
Draw or Lobi Stars
53%

Winning margin

Adamawa United wins by 2+
21%
Lobi Stars wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Adamawa United 1+ goals
70%
Adamawa United 2+ goals
34%
Adamawa United 3+ goals
12%
Lobi Stars 1+ goals
51%
Lobi Stars 2+ goals
16%
Lobi Stars 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Adamawa United (draw refunded)
68%
Lobi Stars (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
23%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Adamawa United at home — creates 0.94, concedes 0.91 · 32 matches

Lobi Stars away — creates 0.53, concedes 1.46 · 114 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Adamawa United attack 0.94 + Lobi Stars defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.20

Lobi Stars attack 0.53 + Adamawa United defence 0.91 → ÷2 → 0.72

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Adamawa United scores more
47%
level
30%
Lobi Stars scores more
22%

Adamawa United at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Adamawa United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

NPFL: Adamawa United 1–0 Lobi Stars

Adamawa United beat Lobi Stars 1-0 in NPFL on February 25, 2021.

The match was played at Pantami Township Stadium in Gombe.