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Adamawa United vs Kwara United — NPFL 2019

Adamawa United
Adamawa United
FT
2 – 1
Kwara United
Kwara United
G. Isa 45'
A. Idris 36'
1/26/2020NPFLNPFL · Round 17Pantami Township Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 32+ matches

Adamawa United48%
×Draw30%
Kwara United22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Adamawa United
1.25
Kwara United
0.74

Adamawa United creates 69% more chances

Season form · 32 home / 128 away

creates per match

Adamawa United
0.94
Kwara United
0.58

allows per match

Adamawa United
0.91
Kwara United
1.55

finishing

Adamawa United+0.00on par
Kwara United+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Under
  • Under68
  • Over32

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

63%No
  • No63
  • Yes37

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Adamawa United ↓

Kwara United →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–014%
0–110%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–017%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
86%14%1.5
59%41%2.5
32%68%3.5
14%86%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Adamawa United or draw
78%
Adamawa United or Kwara United
70%
Draw or Kwara United
52%

Winning margin

Adamawa United wins by 2+
22%
Kwara United wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Adamawa United 1+ goals
71%
Adamawa United 2+ goals
36%
Adamawa United 3+ goals
13%
Kwara United 1+ goals
52%
Kwara United 2+ goals
17%
Kwara United 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Adamawa United (draw refunded)
69%
Kwara United (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
25%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Adamawa United at home — creates 0.94, concedes 0.91 · 32 matches

Kwara United away — creates 0.58, concedes 1.55 · 128 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Adamawa United attack 0.94 + Kwara United defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 1.25

Kwara United attack 0.58 + Adamawa United defence 0.91 → ÷2 → 0.74

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Adamawa United scores more
48%
level
30%
Kwara United scores more
22%

Adamawa United at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Adamawa United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

26'
34'
36'
A. Idris
45'
G. Isa
73'
73'
74'
90+5'

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

NPFL: Adamawa United 2–1 Kwara United

Adamawa United beat Kwara United 2-1 in NPFL on January 26, 2020.

Goals: A. Idris (36'), G. Isa (45').

The match was played at Pantami Township Stadium in Gombe.