Adamawa United 1–0 Katsina United: Result & Stats

Adamawa United

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Katsina United

A. Sanusi 57' (OG)

5/26/2021

NPFL · Round 23Pantami Township Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 32+ matches

Adamawa United52%

×Draw30%

Katsina United18%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Adamawa UnitedExpected goals in this matchKatsina United

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.23

0.60

Adamawa United

1.23

Katsina United

0.60

Adamawa United creates 105% more chances

Season form · 32 home / 118 away

0.94

creates per match

0.29

0.91

allows per match

1.52

creates per match

Adamawa United

0.94

Katsina United

0.29

allows per match

Adamawa United

0.91

Katsina United

1.52

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Adamawa United+0.00on par

Katsina United+0.00on par

Total goals

Under72
Over28

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No68
Yes32

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Adamawa United ↓

Katsina United →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–016%

0–110%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–020%

1–112%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–012%

2–17%

2–22%

2–30%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (20%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

84%16%1.5

55%45%2.5

28%72%3.5

11%89%4.5

4%96%

Double chance

Adamawa United or draw

82%

Adamawa United or Katsina United

70%

Draw or Katsina United

48%

Winning margin

Adamawa United wins by 2+

24%

Katsina United wins by 2+

4%

Team goals

Adamawa United 1+ goals

71%

Adamawa United 2+ goals

35%

Adamawa United 3+ goals

13%

Katsina United 1+ goals

45%

Katsina United 2+ goals

12%

Katsina United 3+ goals

2%

Draw no bet

Adamawa United (draw refunded)

74%

Katsina United (draw refunded)

26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

20%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Adamawa United at home — creates 0.94, concedes 0.91 · 32 matches

Katsina United away — creates 0.29, concedes 1.52 · 118 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Adamawa United attack 0.94 + Katsina United defence 1.52 → ÷2 → 1.23

Katsina United attack 0.29 + Adamawa United defence 0.91 → ÷2 → 0.60

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Adamawa United scores more

52%

level

30%

Katsina United scores more

18%

Adamawa United at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Adamawa United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

39'

57'

A. SanusiOwn goal

90+5'

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff