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Adamawa United vs Enyimba — NPFL 2019

Adamawa United
Adamawa United
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 2
Enyimba
Enyimba
1/25/2021NPFLNPFL · Round 6Abubakar Tafawa Balewa Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 32+ matches

Adamawa United41%
×Draw31%
Enyimba27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Adamawa United
1.08
Enyimba
0.82

Adamawa United creates 32% more chances

Season form · 32 home / 130 away

creates per match

Adamawa United
0.94
Enyimba
0.74

allows per match

Adamawa United
0.91
Enyimba
1.22

finishing

Adamawa United+0.00on par
Enyimba+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Under
  • Under70
  • Over30

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

63%No
  • No63
  • Yes37

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Adamawa United ↓

Enyimba →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–015%
0–112%
0–25%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–17%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
85%15%1.5
57%43%2.5
30%70%3.5
13%87%4.5
4%96%

Double chance

Adamawa United or draw
73%
Adamawa United or Enyimba
69%
Draw or Enyimba
59%

Winning margin

Adamawa United wins by 2+
17%
Enyimba wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Adamawa United 1+ goals
66%
Adamawa United 2+ goals
29%
Adamawa United 3+ goals
10%
Enyimba 1+ goals
56%
Enyimba 2+ goals
20%
Enyimba 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Adamawa United (draw refunded)
60%
Enyimba (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
24%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Adamawa United at home — creates 0.94, concedes 0.91 · 32 matches

Enyimba away — creates 0.74, concedes 1.22 · 130 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Adamawa United attack 0.94 + Enyimba defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.08

Enyimba attack 0.74 + Adamawa United defence 0.91 → ÷2 → 0.82

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Adamawa United scores more
41%
level
31%
Enyimba scores more
27%

Adamawa United at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Adamawa United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

NPFL: Adamawa United 1–2 Enyimba

Enyimba beat Adamawa United 2-1 in NPFL on January 25, 2021.

The match was played at Abubakar Tafawa Balewa Stadium in Bauchi.