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Adamawa United vs Abia Warriors — NPFL 2019

Adamawa United
Adamawa United
FT
1 – 0
Abia Warriors
Abia Warriors
Y. Adam 11'
11/21/2019NPFLNPFL · Round 4Pantami Township Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 32+ matches

Adamawa United46%
×Draw29%
Abia Warriors24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Adamawa United
1.25
Abia Warriors
0.82

Adamawa United creates 52% more chances

Season form · 32 home / 128 away

creates per match

Adamawa United
0.94
Abia Warriors
0.73

allows per match

Adamawa United
0.91
Abia Warriors
1.55

finishing

Adamawa United+0.00on par
Abia Warriors+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Under
  • Under66
  • Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

60%No
  • No60
  • Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Adamawa United ↓

Abia Warriors →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–110%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
61%39%2.5
34%66%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Adamawa United or draw
76%
Adamawa United or Abia Warriors
71%
Draw or Abia Warriors
54%

Winning margin

Adamawa United wins by 2+
21%
Abia Warriors wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Adamawa United 1+ goals
71%
Adamawa United 2+ goals
36%
Adamawa United 3+ goals
13%
Abia Warriors 1+ goals
56%
Abia Warriors 2+ goals
20%
Abia Warriors 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Adamawa United (draw refunded)
66%
Abia Warriors (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
27%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Adamawa United at home — creates 0.94, concedes 0.91 · 32 matches

Abia Warriors away — creates 0.73, concedes 1.55 · 128 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Adamawa United attack 0.94 + Abia Warriors defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 1.25

Abia Warriors attack 0.73 + Adamawa United defence 0.91 → ÷2 → 0.82

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Adamawa United scores more
46%
level
29%
Abia Warriors scores more
24%

Adamawa United at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Adamawa United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

11'
Y. Adam
30'
A. Mbai
43'
O. Jimoh
54'
59'
G. Kuemian← P. Samson
63'
64'
A. Mbai
64'
A. Mbai
70'
M. Buratai← M. Buratai
72'
Z. Udeh← Z. Udeh
90'

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

NPFL: Adamawa United 1–0 Abia Warriors

Adamawa United beat Abia Warriors 1-0 in NPFL on November 21, 2019.

Goals: Y. Adam (11').

The match was played at Pantami Township Stadium in Gombe.