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Adama Kenema vs Sebeta Kenema — Premier League 2019

Adama Kenema
Adama Kenema
FT
0 – 1
Sebeta Kenema
Sebeta Kenema
2/4/2021Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 11Jimma Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 35+ matches

Adama Kenema38%
×Draw29%
Sebeta Kenema33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Adama Kenema
1.17
Sebeta Kenema
1.06

Adama Kenema creates 10% more chances

Season form · 101 home / 35 away

creates per match

Adama Kenema
1.02
Sebeta Kenema
1.00

allows per match

Adama Kenema
1.11
Sebeta Kenema
1.31

finishing

Adama Kenema+0.00on par
Sebeta Kenema+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Adama Kenema ↓

Sebeta Kenema →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–111%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Adama Kenema or draw
67%
Adama Kenema or Sebeta Kenema
71%
Draw or Sebeta Kenema
62%

Winning margin

Adama Kenema wins by 2+
16%
Sebeta Kenema wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Adama Kenema 1+ goals
69%
Adama Kenema 2+ goals
33%
Adama Kenema 3+ goals
11%
Sebeta Kenema 1+ goals
65%
Sebeta Kenema 2+ goals
29%
Sebeta Kenema 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Adama Kenema (draw refunded)
54%
Sebeta Kenema (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Adama Kenema at home — creates 1.02, concedes 1.11 · 101 matches

Sebeta Kenema away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.31 · 35 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Adama Kenema attack 1.02 + Sebeta Kenema defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.17

Sebeta Kenema attack 1.00 + Adama Kenema defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Adama Kenema scores more
38%
level
29%
Sebeta Kenema scores more
33%

Adama Kenema at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Adama Kenema will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Premier League: Adama Kenema 0–1 Sebeta Kenema

Sebeta Kenema beat Adama Kenema 1-0 in Premier League on February 4, 2021.

The match was played at Jimma Stadium in Jimma.