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Adama Kenema vs Jimma Aba Jifar — Premier League 2019

Adama Kenema
Adama Kenema
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Jimma Aba Jifar
Jimma Aba Jifar
4/8/2022Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 17Adama Science and Technology University Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 35+ matches

Adama Kenema42%
×Draw30%
Jimma Aba Jifar28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Adama Kenema
1.18
Jimma Aba Jifar
0.91

Adama Kenema creates 30% more chances

Season form · 101 home / 35 away

creates per match

Adama Kenema
1.02
Jimma Aba Jifar
0.71

allows per match

Adama Kenema
1.11
Jimma Aba Jifar
1.34

finishing

Adama Kenema+0.00on par
Jimma Aba Jifar+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Under
  • Under65
  • Over35

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

59%No
  • No59
  • Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Adama Kenema ↓

Jimma Aba Jifar →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–111%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
62%38%2.5
35%65%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Adama Kenema or draw
72%
Adama Kenema or Jimma Aba Jifar
70%
Draw or Jimma Aba Jifar
58%

Winning margin

Adama Kenema wins by 2+
18%
Jimma Aba Jifar wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Adama Kenema 1+ goals
69%
Adama Kenema 2+ goals
33%
Adama Kenema 3+ goals
12%
Jimma Aba Jifar 1+ goals
60%
Jimma Aba Jifar 2+ goals
23%
Jimma Aba Jifar 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Adama Kenema (draw refunded)
60%
Jimma Aba Jifar (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
28%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Adama Kenema at home — creates 1.02, concedes 1.11 · 101 matches

Jimma Aba Jifar away — creates 0.71, concedes 1.34 · 35 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Adama Kenema attack 1.02 + Jimma Aba Jifar defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.18

Jimma Aba Jifar attack 0.71 + Adama Kenema defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 0.91

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Adama Kenema scores more
42%
level
30%
Jimma Aba Jifar scores more
28%

Adama Kenema at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Adama Kenema will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Adama Kenema 1 – 1 Jimma Aba Jifar

Adama Kenema and Jimma Aba Jifar drew 1-1 in Premier League on April 8, 2022.

The match was played at Adama Science and Technology University Stadium in Adama.