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Adama Kenema vs Hambericho Durame — Premier League 2019

Adama Kenema
Adama Kenema
FT
2 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
Hambericho Durame
Hambericho Durame
10/22/2023Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 3Adama Science and Technology University Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Adama Kenema52%
×Draw26%
Hambericho Durame22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Adama Kenema
1.54
Hambericho Durame
0.89

Adama Kenema creates 73% more chances

Season form · 101 home / 15 away

creates per match

Adama Kenema
1.02
Hambericho Durame
0.67

allows per match

Adama Kenema
1.11
Hambericho Durame
2.07

finishing

Adama Kenema+0.00on par
Hambericho Durame+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Adama Kenema ↓

Hambericho Durame →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–18%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–112%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Adama Kenema or draw
78%
Adama Kenema or Hambericho Durame
74%
Draw or Hambericho Durame
48%

Winning margin

Adama Kenema wins by 2+
27%
Hambericho Durame wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Adama Kenema 1+ goals
79%
Adama Kenema 2+ goals
45%
Adama Kenema 3+ goals
20%
Hambericho Durame 1+ goals
59%
Hambericho Durame 2+ goals
22%
Hambericho Durame 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Adama Kenema (draw refunded)
71%
Hambericho Durame (draw refunded)
29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Adama Kenema at home — creates 1.02, concedes 1.11 · 101 matches

Hambericho Durame away — creates 0.67, concedes 2.07 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Adama Kenema attack 1.02 + Hambericho Durame defence 2.07 → ÷2 → 1.54

Hambericho Durame attack 0.67 + Adama Kenema defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 0.89

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Adama Kenema scores more
52%
level
26%
Hambericho Durame scores more
22%

Adama Kenema at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Adama Kenema will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Adama Kenema vs Hambericho Durame

Adama Kenema and Hambericho Durame drew 2-2 in Premier League on October 22, 2023.

The match was played at Adama Science and Technology University Stadium in Adama.