Ada Velipojë 3–4 Himara: Result & Stats

Ada Velipojë

FT

3 – 4

Himara

5/3/2014

1st Division · Round 29Fusha Sportive Adriatik

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Ada Velipojë41%

×Draw23%

Himara36%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.5%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 581,483 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Ada VelipojëExpected goals in this matchHimara

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.67

1.56

Ada Velipojë

1.67

Himara

1.56

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 9 home / 3 away

1.67

creates per match

2.00

1.11

allows per match

1.67

creates per match

Ada Velipojë

1.67

Himara

2.00

allows per match

Ada Velipojë

1.11

Himara

1.67

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Ada Velipojë+0.00on par

Himara+0.00on par

Total goals

Over63
Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes64
No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ada Velipojë ↓

Himara →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–16%

0–25%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–110%

1–28%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–34%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

63%37%3.5

40%60%4.5

22%78%

Double chance

Ada Velipojë or draw

64%

Ada Velipojë or Himara

77%

Draw or Himara

59%

Winning margin

Ada Velipojë wins by 2+

21%

Himara wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

Ada Velipojë 1+ goals

81%

Ada Velipojë 2+ goals

50%

Ada Velipojë 3+ goals

23%

Himara 1+ goals

79%

Himara 2+ goals

46%

Himara 3+ goals

21%

Draw no bet

Ada Velipojë (draw refunded)

53%

Himara (draw refunded)

47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

54%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ada Velipojë at home — creates 1.67, concedes 1.11 · 9 matches

Himara away — creates 2.00, concedes 1.67 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ada Velipojë attack 1.67 + Himara defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.67

Himara attack 2.00 + Ada Velipojë defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.56

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Ada Velipojë scores more

41%

level

23%

Himara scores more

36%

Ada Velipojë at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Ada Velipojë will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff