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AD Sarchí vs Marineros de Puntarenas — Liga de Ascenso 2018

AD Sarchí
AD Sarchí
FT
3 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Marineros de Puntarenas
Marineros de Puntarenas
2/21/2024Liga de AscensoLiga de Ascenso · Clausura - 9Estadio Municipal Eliécer Pérez Conejo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 37+ matches

AD Sarchí46%
×Draw24%
Marineros de Puntarenas30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

AD Sarchí
1.71
Marineros de Puntarenas
1.33

AD Sarchí creates 29% more chances

Season form · 62 home / 37 away

creates per match

AD Sarchí
1.82
Marineros de Puntarenas
1.54

allows per match

AD Sarchí
1.11
Marineros de Puntarenas
1.59

finishing

AD Sarchí+0.00on par
Marineros de Puntarenas+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

AD Sarchí ↓

Marineros de Puntarenas →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
58%42%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

AD Sarchí or draw
70%
AD Sarchí or Marineros de Puntarenas
76%
Draw or Marineros de Puntarenas
54%

Winning margin

AD Sarchí wins by 2+
25%
Marineros de Puntarenas wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

AD Sarchí 1+ goals
82%
AD Sarchí 2+ goals
51%
AD Sarchí 3+ goals
24%
Marineros de Puntarenas 1+ goals
74%
Marineros de Puntarenas 2+ goals
38%
Marineros de Puntarenas 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

AD Sarchí (draw refunded)
61%
Marineros de Puntarenas (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

AD Sarchí at home — creates 1.82, concedes 1.11 · 62 matches

Marineros de Puntarenas away — creates 1.54, concedes 1.59 · 37 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

AD Sarchí attack 1.82 + Marineros de Puntarenas defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.71

Marineros de Puntarenas attack 1.54 + AD Sarchí defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

AD Sarchí scores more
46%
level
24%
Marineros de Puntarenas scores more
30%

AD Sarchí at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "AD Sarchí will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: AD Sarchí vs Marineros de Puntarenas

AD Sarchí beat Marineros de Puntarenas 3-1 in Liga de Ascenso on February 21, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal Eliécer Pérez Conejo in Sarchi.