AD Sarchí 5–0 AS Puma Generalena: Result & Stats

AD Sarchí

FT

5 – 0

HT: 2 – 0

AS Puma Generalena

10/1/2023

Liga de Ascenso · Apertura - 13Estadio Municipal Eliécer Pérez Conejo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 62+ matches

AD Sarchí57%

×Draw22%

AS Puma Generalena20%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

AD SarchíExpected goals in this matchAS Puma Generalena

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.88

1.02

AD Sarchí

1.88

AS Puma Generalena

1.02

AD Sarchí creates 84% more chances

Season form · 62 home / 74 away

1.82

creates per match

0.92

1.11

allows per match

1.93

creates per match

AD Sarchí

1.82

AS Puma Generalena

0.92

allows per match

AD Sarchí

1.11

AS Puma Generalena

1.93

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

AD Sarchí+0.00on par

AS Puma Generalena+0.00on par

Total goals

Over55
Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

AD Sarchí ↓

AS Puma Generalena →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–111%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

55%45%3.5

33%67%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

AD Sarchí or draw

80%

AD Sarchí or AS Puma Generalena

78%

Draw or AS Puma Generalena

43%

Winning margin

AD Sarchí wins by 2+

33%

AS Puma Generalena wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

AD Sarchí 1+ goals

85%

AD Sarchí 2+ goals

56%

AD Sarchí 3+ goals

29%

AS Puma Generalena 1+ goals

64%

AS Puma Generalena 2+ goals

27%

AS Puma Generalena 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

AD Sarchí (draw refunded)

74%

AS Puma Generalena (draw refunded)

26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

44%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

AD Sarchí at home — creates 1.82, concedes 1.11 · 62 matches

AS Puma Generalena away — creates 0.92, concedes 1.93 · 74 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

AD Sarchí attack 1.82 + AS Puma Generalena defence 1.93 → ÷2 → 1.88

AS Puma Generalena attack 0.92 + AD Sarchí defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

AD Sarchí scores more

57%

level

22%

AS Puma Generalena scores more

20%

AD Sarchí at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "AD Sarchí will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff