AD Sarchí 0–3 ADR Jicaral: Result & Stats

AD Sarchí

FT

0 – 3

HT: 0 – 2

ADR Jicaral

2/21/2026

Liga de Ascenso · Clausura - 8

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 62+ matches

AD Sarchí42%

×Draw26%

ADR Jicaral32%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

AD SarchíExpected goals in this matchADR Jicaral

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.45

1.23

AD Sarchí

1.45

ADR Jicaral

1.23

AD Sarchí creates 18% more chances

Season form · 62 home / 96 away

1.82

creates per match

1.34

1.11

allows per match

1.07

creates per match

AD Sarchí

1.82

ADR Jicaral

1.34

allows per match

AD Sarchí

1.11

ADR Jicaral

1.07

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

AD Sarchí+0.00on par

ADR Jicaral+0.00on par

Total goals

Under50
Over50

Close call

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

AD Sarchí ↓

ADR Jicaral →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

50%50%3.5

28%72%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

AD Sarchí or draw

68%

AD Sarchí or ADR Jicaral

74%

Draw or ADR Jicaral

58%

Winning margin

AD Sarchí wins by 2+

20%

ADR Jicaral wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

AD Sarchí 1+ goals

77%

AD Sarchí 2+ goals

42%

AD Sarchí 3+ goals

18%

ADR Jicaral 1+ goals

71%

ADR Jicaral 2+ goals

35%

ADR Jicaral 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

AD Sarchí (draw refunded)

57%

ADR Jicaral (draw refunded)

43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

AD Sarchí at home — creates 1.82, concedes 1.11 · 62 matches

ADR Jicaral away — creates 1.34, concedes 1.07 · 96 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

AD Sarchí attack 1.82 + ADR Jicaral defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.45

ADR Jicaral attack 1.34 + AD Sarchí defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

AD Sarchí scores more

42%

level

26%

ADR Jicaral scores more

32%

AD Sarchí at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "AD Sarchí will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff