AD Sarchí vs AD Carmelita — Liga de Ascenso 2018
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on goals from last 62+ matches
AD Sarchí48%
AD Carmelita28%✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
AD Sarchí creates 39% more chances
Season form · 62 home / 104 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Over55
- Under45
3+ goals likely
Both teams score
- Yes57
- No43
Both teams likely to score
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
AD Sarchí ↓
Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
AD Sarchí at home — creates 1.82, concedes 1.11 · 62 matches
AD Carmelita away — creates 1.31, concedes 1.54 · 104 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
AD Sarchí attack 1.82 + AD Carmelita defence 1.54 → ÷2 → 1.68
AD Carmelita attack 1.31 + AD Sarchí defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.21
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 48%?"
AD Sarchí at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 48% does not mean "AD Sarchí will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Probable lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff
Inter San Carlos
Escorpiones Belén
ADR Jicaral
Quepos Cambute
Futbol Consultants Moravia
CS Uruguay
AD CofutpaAD Sarchí
Pitbulls Santa Barbara FC
Cariari Pococi
Santa Cruz FC
Santa AnaAD Carmelita
Municipal Grecia
Aserri FC
Deportivo UpalaIf points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
AD Sarchí host AD Carmelita on Wednesday, 9 October 2024 at 17:00. The match is part of the Liga de Ascenso 2018/2019 season.
Liga de Ascenso: AD Sarchí 1–0 AD Carmelita
AD Sarchí beat AD Carmelita 1-0 in Liga de Ascenso on October 9, 2024.
The match was played at Estadio Municipal Eliécer Pérez Conejo in Sarchi.