AD Parla 1–1 Ursaria: Result & Stats

AD Parla

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Ursaria

10/24/2021

Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 · Group 7 - 9Estadio Municipal de Los Prados

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 35+ matches

AD Parla28%

×Draw27%

Ursaria45%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

AD ParlaExpected goals in this matchUrsaria

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.00

1.36

AD Parla

1.00

Ursaria

1.36

Ursaria creates 36% more chances

Season form · 98 home / 35 away

1.08

creates per match

1.37

1.35

allows per match

0.91

creates per match

AD Parla

1.08

Ursaria

1.37

allows per match

AD Parla

1.35

Ursaria

0.91

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

AD Parla+0.00on par

Ursaria+0.00on par

Total goals

Under58
Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

AD Parla ↓

Ursaria →

0–09%

0–113%

0–29%

0–34%

0–41%

1–09%

1–113%

1–29%

1–34%

1–41%

2–05%

2–16%

2–24%

2–32%

2–41%

3–02%

3–12%

3–21%

3–31%

3–40%

4–00%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

68%32%2.5

42%58%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

AD Parla or draw

55%

AD Parla or Ursaria

73%

Draw or Ursaria

72%

Winning margin

AD Parla wins by 2+

10%

Ursaria wins by 2+

21%

Team goals

AD Parla 1+ goals

63%

AD Parla 2+ goals

26%

AD Parla 3+ goals

Ursaria 1+ goals

74%

Ursaria 2+ goals

39%

Ursaria 3+ goals

16%

Draw no bet

AD Parla (draw refunded)

38%

Ursaria (draw refunded)

62%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

34%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

AD Parla at home — creates 1.08, concedes 1.35 · 98 matches

Ursaria away — creates 1.37, concedes 0.91 · 35 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

AD Parla attack 1.08 + Ursaria defence 0.91 → ÷2 → 1.00

Ursaria attack 1.37 + AD Parla defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.36

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 45%?"

AD Parla scores more

28%

level

27%

Ursaria scores more

45%

Ursaria at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Ursaria will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff