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AD Parla vs Tres Cantos — Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 2019

AD Parla
AD Parla
FT
3 – 4
HT: 1 – 4
Tres Cantos
Tres Cantos
4/12/2026Tercera División RFEF - Group 7Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 · Group 7 - 30Estadio Municipal de Los Prados

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 71+ matches

AD Parla42%
×Draw26%
Tres Cantos32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

AD Parla
1.42
Tres Cantos
1.19

AD Parla creates 19% more chances

Season form · 98 home / 71 away

creates per match

AD Parla
1.08
Tres Cantos
1.03

allows per match

AD Parla
1.35
Tres Cantos
1.75

finishing

AD Parla+0.00on par
Tres Cantos+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

AD Parla ↓

Tres Cantos →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
27%73%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

AD Parla or draw
68%
AD Parla or Tres Cantos
74%
Draw or Tres Cantos
58%

Winning margin

AD Parla wins by 2+
20%
Tres Cantos wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

AD Parla 1+ goals
76%
AD Parla 2+ goals
41%
AD Parla 3+ goals
17%
Tres Cantos 1+ goals
70%
Tres Cantos 2+ goals
33%
Tres Cantos 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

AD Parla (draw refunded)
57%
Tres Cantos (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

AD Parla at home — creates 1.08, concedes 1.35 · 98 matches

Tres Cantos away — creates 1.03, concedes 1.75 · 71 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

AD Parla attack 1.08 + Tres Cantos defence 1.75 → ÷2 → 1.42

Tres Cantos attack 1.03 + AD Parla defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

AD Parla scores more
42%
level
26%
Tres Cantos scores more
32%

AD Parla at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "AD Parla will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: AD Parla vs Tres Cantos

Tres Cantos beat AD Parla 4-3 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 on April 12, 2026.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal de Los Prados in Parla.