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AD Parla vs Santa Ana — Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 2019

AD Parla
AD Parla
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Santa Ana
Santa Ana
1/12/2020Tercera División RFEF - Group 7Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 · Group 7 - 20Estadio Los Prados

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 31+ matches

AD Parla45%
×Draw26%
Santa Ana29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

AD Parla
1.51
Santa Ana
1.16

AD Parla creates 30% more chances

Season form · 98 home / 31 away

creates per match

AD Parla
1.08
Santa Ana
0.97

allows per match

AD Parla
1.35
Santa Ana
1.94

finishing

AD Parla+0.00on par
Santa Ana+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

AD Parla ↓

Santa Ana →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

AD Parla or draw
71%
AD Parla or Santa Ana
74%
Draw or Santa Ana
55%

Winning margin

AD Parla wins by 2+
23%
Santa Ana wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

AD Parla 1+ goals
78%
AD Parla 2+ goals
44%
AD Parla 3+ goals
19%
Santa Ana 1+ goals
69%
Santa Ana 2+ goals
32%
Santa Ana 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

AD Parla (draw refunded)
61%
Santa Ana (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

AD Parla at home — creates 1.08, concedes 1.35 · 98 matches

Santa Ana away — creates 0.97, concedes 1.94 · 31 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

AD Parla attack 1.08 + Santa Ana defence 1.94 → ÷2 → 1.51

Santa Ana attack 0.97 + AD Parla defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.16

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

AD Parla scores more
45%
level
26%
Santa Ana scores more
29%

AD Parla at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "AD Parla will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: AD Parla vs Santa Ana

Santa Ana beat AD Parla 1-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 on January 12, 2020.

The match was played at Estadio Los Prados in Parla.