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AD Parla vs RSD Alcalá — Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 2019

AD Parla
AD Parla
FT
2 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
RSD Alcalá
RSD Alcalá
4/3/2022Tercera División RFEF - Group 7Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 · Group 7 - 37Estadio Municipal de Los Prados

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 98+ matches

AD Parla33%
×Draw27%
RSD Alcalá40%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

AD Parla
1.14
RSD Alcalá
1.29

RSD Alcalá creates 13% more chances

Season form · 98 home / 99 away

creates per match

AD Parla
1.08
RSD Alcalá
1.23

allows per match

AD Parla
1.35
RSD Alcalá
1.20

finishing

AD Parla+0.00on par
RSD Alcalá+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

AD Parla ↓

RSD Alcalá →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–111%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–17%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

AD Parla or draw
60%
AD Parla or RSD Alcalá
73%
Draw or RSD Alcalá
67%

Winning margin

AD Parla wins by 2+
13%
RSD Alcalá wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

AD Parla 1+ goals
68%
AD Parla 2+ goals
32%
AD Parla 3+ goals
11%
RSD Alcalá 1+ goals
72%
RSD Alcalá 2+ goals
37%
RSD Alcalá 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

AD Parla (draw refunded)
45%
RSD Alcalá (draw refunded)
55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

AD Parla at home — creates 1.08, concedes 1.35 · 98 matches

RSD Alcalá away — creates 1.23, concedes 1.20 · 99 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

AD Parla attack 1.08 + RSD Alcalá defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.14

RSD Alcalá attack 1.23 + AD Parla defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

AD Parla scores more
33%
level
27%
RSD Alcalá scores more
40%

RSD Alcalá at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "RSD Alcalá will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: AD Parla vs RSD Alcalá

AD Parla beat RSD Alcalá 2-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 on April 3, 2022.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal de Los Prados in Parla.