AD Parla 1–0 Móstoles CF: Result & Stats

AD Parla

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Móstoles CF

12/6/2020

Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 · Group 7 - 8Estadio Los Prados

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

AD Parla38%

×Draw29%

Móstoles CF33%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

AD ParlaExpected goals in this matchMóstoles CF

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.17

1.08

AD Parla

1.17

Móstoles CF

1.08

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 98 home / 16 away

1.08

creates per match

0.81

1.35

allows per match

1.25

creates per match

AD Parla

1.08

Móstoles CF

0.81

allows per match

AD Parla

1.35

Móstoles CF

1.25

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

AD Parla+0.00on par

Móstoles CF+0.00on par

Total goals

Under61
Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

AD Parla ↓

Móstoles CF →

0–011%

0–111%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2–07%

2–18%

2–24%

2–32%

2–40%

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

66%34%2.5

39%61%3.5

19%81%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

AD Parla or draw

67%

AD Parla or Móstoles CF

71%

Draw or Móstoles CF

62%

Winning margin

AD Parla wins by 2+

16%

Móstoles CF wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

AD Parla 1+ goals

69%

AD Parla 2+ goals

33%

AD Parla 3+ goals

11%

Móstoles CF 1+ goals

66%

Móstoles CF 2+ goals

29%

Móstoles CF 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

AD Parla (draw refunded)

53%

Móstoles CF (draw refunded)

47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

32%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

AD Parla at home — creates 1.08, concedes 1.35 · 98 matches

Móstoles CF away — creates 0.81, concedes 1.25 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

AD Parla attack 1.08 + Móstoles CF defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.17

Móstoles CF attack 0.81 + AD Parla defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 38%?"

AD Parla scores more

38%

level

29%

Móstoles CF scores more

33%

AD Parla at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "AD Parla will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff