AD Parla 0–1 Móstoles: Result & Stats

AD Parla

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Móstoles

1/31/2021

Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 · Group 7 - 14Estadio Los Prados

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 76+ matches

AD Parla30%

×Draw27%

Móstoles42%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

AD ParlaExpected goals in this matchMóstoles

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.08

1.33

AD Parla

1.08

Móstoles

1.33

Móstoles creates 23% more chances

Season form · 98 home / 76 away

1.08

creates per match

1.30

1.35

allows per match

1.09

creates per match

AD Parla

1.08

Móstoles

1.30

allows per match

AD Parla

1.35

Móstoles

1.09

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

AD Parla+0.00on par

Móstoles+0.00on par

Total goals

Under57
Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

AD Parla ↓

Móstoles →

0–09%

0–112%

0–28%

0–34%

0–41%

1–010%

1–113%

1–29%

1–34%

1–41%

2–05%

2–17%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

69%31%2.5

43%57%3.5

22%78%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

AD Parla or draw

58%

AD Parla or Móstoles

73%

Draw or Móstoles

70%

Winning margin

AD Parla wins by 2+

12%

Móstoles wins by 2+

19%

Team goals

AD Parla 1+ goals

66%

AD Parla 2+ goals

29%

AD Parla 3+ goals

10%

Móstoles 1+ goals

74%

Móstoles 2+ goals

38%

Móstoles 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

AD Parla (draw refunded)

42%

Móstoles (draw refunded)

58%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

AD Parla at home — creates 1.08, concedes 1.35 · 98 matches

Móstoles away — creates 1.30, concedes 1.09 · 76 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

AD Parla attack 1.08 + Móstoles defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 1.08

Móstoles attack 1.30 + AD Parla defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 42%?"

AD Parla scores more

30%

level

27%

Móstoles scores more

42%

Móstoles at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Móstoles will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff