AD Parla 1–0 Madrid 2021 FP: Result & Stats

AD Parla

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Madrid 2021 FP

2/13/2022

Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 · Group 7 - 28Estadio Municipal de Los Prados

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 35+ matches

AD Parla34%

×Draw27%

Madrid 2021 FP39%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

AD ParlaExpected goals in this matchMadrid 2021 FP

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.21

1.31

AD Parla

1.21

Madrid 2021 FP

1.31

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 98 home / 35 away

1.08

creates per match

1.26

1.35

allows per match

1.34

creates per match

AD Parla

1.08

Madrid 2021 FP

1.26

allows per match

AD Parla

1.35

Madrid 2021 FP

1.34

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

AD Parla+0.00on par

Madrid 2021 FP+0.00on par

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

AD Parla ↓

Madrid 2021 FP →

0–08%

0–111%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2–06%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

46%54%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

AD Parla or draw

61%

AD Parla or Madrid 2021 FP

73%

Draw or Madrid 2021 FP

66%

Winning margin

AD Parla wins by 2+

14%

Madrid 2021 FP wins by 2+

18%

Team goals

AD Parla 1+ goals

70%

AD Parla 2+ goals

34%

AD Parla 3+ goals

12%

Madrid 2021 FP 1+ goals

73%

Madrid 2021 FP 2+ goals

38%

Madrid 2021 FP 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

AD Parla (draw refunded)

47%

Madrid 2021 FP (draw refunded)

53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

AD Parla at home — creates 1.08, concedes 1.35 · 98 matches

Madrid 2021 FP away — creates 1.26, concedes 1.34 · 35 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

AD Parla attack 1.08 + Madrid 2021 FP defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.21

Madrid 2021 FP attack 1.26 + AD Parla defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.31

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 39%?"

AD Parla scores more

34%

level

27%

Madrid 2021 FP scores more

39%

Madrid 2021 FP at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Madrid 2021 FP will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: AD Parla vs Madrid 2021 FP

AD Parla beat Madrid 2021 FP 1-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 on February 13, 2022.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal de Los Prados in Parla.

AD Parla vs Madrid 2021 FP — Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Head to Head

Match Recap: AD Parla vs Madrid 2021 FP