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AD Parla vs Leganés II — Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 2019

AD Parla
AD Parla
FT
1 – 3
HT: 1 – 1
Leganés II
Leganés II
1/12/2025Tercera División RFEF - Group 7Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 · Group 7 - 17Estadio Municipal de Los Prados

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 79+ matches

AD Parla28%
×Draw25%
Leganés II47%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

AD Parla
1.20
Leganés II
1.62

Leganés II creates 35% more chances

Season form · 98 home / 79 away

creates per match

AD Parla
1.08
Leganés II
1.89

allows per match

AD Parla
1.35
Leganés II
1.32

finishing

AD Parla+0.00on par
Leganés II+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

AD Parla ↓

Leganés II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–110%
0–28%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–07%
1–112%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

AD Parla or draw
53%
AD Parla or Leganés II
75%
Draw or Leganés II
72%

Winning margin

AD Parla wins by 2+
12%
Leganés II wins by 2+
24%

Team goals

AD Parla 1+ goals
70%
AD Parla 2+ goals
34%
AD Parla 3+ goals
12%
Leganés II 1+ goals
80%
Leganés II 2+ goals
48%
Leganés II 3+ goals
22%

Draw no bet

AD Parla (draw refunded)
38%
Leganés II (draw refunded)
62%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

AD Parla at home — creates 1.08, concedes 1.35 · 98 matches

Leganés II away — creates 1.89, concedes 1.32 · 79 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

AD Parla attack 1.08 + Leganés II defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.20

Leganés II attack 1.89 + AD Parla defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.62

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

AD Parla scores more
28%
level
25%
Leganés II scores more
47%

Leganés II at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Leganés II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: AD Parla vs Leganés II

Leganés II beat AD Parla 3-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 on January 12, 2025.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal de Los Prados in Parla.