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AD Parla vs Alcorcón II — Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 2019

AD Parla
AD Parla
FT
1 – 6
HT: 1 – 3
Alcorcón II
Alcorcón II
9/29/2024Tercera División RFEF - Group 7Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 · Group 7 - 4Polideportivo Adolfo Suárez

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 97+ matches

AD Parla31%
×Draw27%
Alcorcón II42%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

AD Parla
1.09
Alcorcón II
1.31

Alcorcón II creates 20% more chances

Season form · 98 home / 97 away

creates per match

AD Parla
1.08
Alcorcón II
1.26

allows per match

AD Parla
1.35
Alcorcón II
1.10

finishing

AD Parla+0.00on par
Alcorcón II+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

AD Parla ↓

Alcorcón II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–112%
0–28%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

AD Parla or draw
58%
AD Parla or Alcorcón II
73%
Draw or Alcorcón II
69%

Winning margin

AD Parla wins by 2+
12%
Alcorcón II wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

AD Parla 1+ goals
66%
AD Parla 2+ goals
30%
AD Parla 3+ goals
10%
Alcorcón II 1+ goals
73%
Alcorcón II 2+ goals
38%
Alcorcón II 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

AD Parla (draw refunded)
43%
Alcorcón II (draw refunded)
57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

AD Parla at home — creates 1.08, concedes 1.35 · 98 matches

Alcorcón II away — creates 1.26, concedes 1.10 · 97 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

AD Parla attack 1.08 + Alcorcón II defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.09

Alcorcón II attack 1.26 + AD Parla defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.31

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

AD Parla scores more
31%
level
27%
Alcorcón II scores more
42%

Alcorcón II at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Alcorcón II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 7: AD Parla 1–6 Alcorcón II

Alcorcón II beat AD Parla 6-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 on September 29, 2024.

The match was played at Polideportivo Adolfo Suárez in Serranillos del Valle.