Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

AD Parla vs Alcobendas Sport — Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 2019

AD Parla
AD Parla
FT
1 – 3
HT: 0 – 3
Alcobendas Sport
Alcobendas Sport
12/14/2025Tercera División RFEF - Group 7Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 · Group 7 - 14Estadio Municipal de Los Prados

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 98+ matches

AD Parla33%
×Draw27%
Alcobendas Sport40%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

AD Parla
1.19
Alcobendas Sport
1.33

Alcobendas Sport creates 12% more chances

Season form · 98 home / 117 away

creates per match

AD Parla
1.08
Alcobendas Sport
1.31

allows per match

AD Parla
1.35
Alcobendas Sport
1.30

finishing

AD Parla+0.00on par
Alcobendas Sport+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

AD Parla ↓

Alcobendas Sport →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–111%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
46%54%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

AD Parla or draw
60%
AD Parla or Alcobendas Sport
73%
Draw or Alcobendas Sport
67%

Winning margin

AD Parla wins by 2+
14%
Alcobendas Sport wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

AD Parla 1+ goals
70%
AD Parla 2+ goals
33%
AD Parla 3+ goals
12%
Alcobendas Sport 1+ goals
74%
Alcobendas Sport 2+ goals
38%
Alcobendas Sport 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

AD Parla (draw refunded)
45%
Alcobendas Sport (draw refunded)
55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

AD Parla at home — creates 1.08, concedes 1.35 · 98 matches

Alcobendas Sport away — creates 1.31, concedes 1.30 · 117 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

AD Parla attack 1.08 + Alcobendas Sport defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.19

Alcobendas Sport attack 1.31 + AD Parla defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

AD Parla scores more
33%
level
27%
Alcobendas Sport scores more
40%

Alcobendas Sport at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Alcobendas Sport will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 7: AD Parla 1–3 Alcobendas Sport

Alcobendas Sport beat AD Parla 3-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 on December 14, 2025.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal de Los Prados in Parla.