AD Marco 09 vs Leça — Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Promotion Round 2022
Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Promotion Round · Promotion Round - 4Estádio Municipal do Marco de CanavesesMatch Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on goals from last 3+ matches
AD Marco 0945%
Leça32%✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
AD Marco 09 creates 22% more chances
Season form · 3 home / 6 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Over65
- Under35
3+ goals likely
Both teams score
- Yes65
- No35
Both teams likely to score
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
AD Marco 09 ↓
Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
AD Marco 09 at home — creates 1.33, concedes 1.00 · 3 matches
Leça away — creates 2.00, concedes 2.33 · 6 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
AD Marco 09 attack 1.33 + Leça defence 2.33 → ÷2 → 1.83
Leça attack 2.00 + AD Marco 09 defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.50
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 45%?"
AD Marco 09 at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 45% does not mean "AD Marco 09 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Probable lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff
Head to Head
If points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
AD Marco 09 host Leça on Sunday, 18 May 2025 at 16:00. The match is part of the Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Promotion Round 2022/2023 season.
Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Promotion Round: AD Marco 09 3–2 Leça
AD Marco 09 beat Leça 3-2 in Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Promotion Round on May 18, 2025.
The match was played at Estádio Municipal do Marco de Canaveses in Marco de Canaveses.