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AD Guanacasteca vs Puntarenas FC — Liga de Ascenso 2018

AD Guanacasteca
AD Guanacasteca
FT
2 – 2
Puntarenas FC
Puntarenas FC
P. Cordoba 41', 35'
M. Centeno 51'
R. Jimenez 16'
5/9/2021Liga de AscensoLiga de Ascenso · Clausura - FinalsEstadio Chorotega

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

AD Guanacasteca37%
×Draw27%
Puntarenas FC36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

AD Guanacasteca
1.23
Puntarenas FC
1.21

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 51 home / 64 away

creates per match

AD Guanacasteca
1.37
Puntarenas FC
1.36

allows per match

AD Guanacasteca
1.06
Puntarenas FC
1.09

finishing

AD Guanacasteca+0.00on par
Puntarenas FC+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

AD Guanacasteca ↓

Puntarenas FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–111%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

AD Guanacasteca or draw
64%
AD Guanacasteca or Puntarenas FC
73%
Draw or Puntarenas FC
63%

Winning margin

AD Guanacasteca wins by 2+
16%
Puntarenas FC wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

AD Guanacasteca 1+ goals
71%
AD Guanacasteca 2+ goals
35%
AD Guanacasteca 3+ goals
13%
Puntarenas FC 1+ goals
70%
Puntarenas FC 2+ goals
34%
Puntarenas FC 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

AD Guanacasteca (draw refunded)
51%
Puntarenas FC (draw refunded)
49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

AD Guanacasteca at home — creates 1.37, concedes 1.06 · 51 matches

Puntarenas FC away — creates 1.36, concedes 1.09 · 64 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

AD Guanacasteca attack 1.37 + Puntarenas FC defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 1.23

Puntarenas FC attack 1.36 + AD Guanacasteca defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

AD Guanacasteca scores more
37%
level
27%
Puntarenas FC scores more
36%

AD Guanacasteca at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "AD Guanacasteca will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

16'
R. Jimenez
35'
P. Cordoba
41'
P. Cordoba
51'
M. Centeno

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: AD Guanacasteca vs Puntarenas FC

AD Guanacasteca and Puntarenas FC drew 2-2 in Liga de Ascenso on May 9, 2021.

Goals: R. Jimenez (16'), P. Cordoba (35', 41'), M. Centeno (51').

The match was played at Estadio Chorotega in Nicoya.