Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

AD Guanacasteca vs Futbol Consultants Moravia — Liga de Ascenso 2018

AD Guanacasteca
AD Guanacastecaadvanced
FT
6 – 2
Futbol Consultants Moravia
Futbol Consultants Moravia
R. Najera 90+1'
L. Adams 84'
C. Montero 69'
P. Cordoba 56', 40'
J. Condega 34'
L. Balmaceda 67'
J. Arrieta 14'
4/10/2021Liga de AscensoLiga de Ascenso · Clausura - Quarter-finalsEstadio Chorotega

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

AD Guanacasteca46%
×Draw26%
Futbol Consultants Moravia28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

AD Guanacasteca
1.51
Futbol Consultants Moravia
1.12

AD Guanacasteca creates 35% more chances

Season form · 51 home / 124 away

creates per match

AD Guanacasteca
1.37
Futbol Consultants Moravia
1.18

allows per match

AD Guanacasteca
1.06
Futbol Consultants Moravia
1.65

finishing

AD Guanacasteca+0.00on par
Futbol Consultants Moravia+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

AD Guanacasteca ↓

Futbol Consultants Moravia →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

AD Guanacasteca or draw
72%
AD Guanacasteca or Futbol Consultants Moravia
74%
Draw or Futbol Consultants Moravia
54%

Winning margin

AD Guanacasteca wins by 2+
23%
Futbol Consultants Moravia wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

AD Guanacasteca 1+ goals
78%
AD Guanacasteca 2+ goals
44%
AD Guanacasteca 3+ goals
19%
Futbol Consultants Moravia 1+ goals
67%
Futbol Consultants Moravia 2+ goals
31%
Futbol Consultants Moravia 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

AD Guanacasteca (draw refunded)
62%
Futbol Consultants Moravia (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

AD Guanacasteca at home — creates 1.37, concedes 1.06 · 51 matches

Futbol Consultants Moravia away — creates 1.18, concedes 1.65 · 124 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

AD Guanacasteca attack 1.37 + Futbol Consultants Moravia defence 1.65 → ÷2 → 1.51

Futbol Consultants Moravia attack 1.18 + AD Guanacasteca defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 1.12

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

AD Guanacasteca scores more
46%
level
26%
Futbol Consultants Moravia scores more
28%

AD Guanacasteca at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "AD Guanacasteca will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

14'
J. Arrieta
34'
J. Condega
40'
P. Cordoba
56'
P. Cordoba
67'
L. Balmaceda
69'
C. Montero
84'
L. Adams
90+1'
R. Najera

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: AD Guanacasteca vs Futbol Consultants Moravia

AD Guanacasteca beat Futbol Consultants Moravia 6-2 in Liga de Ascenso on April 10, 2021.

Goals: J. Arrieta (14'), J. Condega (34'), P. Cordoba (40', 56'), L. Balmaceda (67'), C. Montero (69'), L. Adams (84'), R. Najera (90+1').

The match was played at Estadio Chorotega in Nicoya.