AD Guanacasteca 1–4 Deportivo Cartagena

AD Guanacasteca

FT

1 – 4

Deportivo Cartagena

9/2/2018

Liga de Ascenso · Apertura - 8Estadio Chorotega (Nicoya)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 32+ matches

AD Guanacasteca45%

×Draw24%

Deportivo Cartagena31%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.6%

Always home

44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

AD GuanacastecaExpected goals in this matchDeportivo Cartagena

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.72

1.39

AD Guanacasteca

1.72

Deportivo Cartagena

1.39

AD Guanacasteca creates 24% more chances

Season form · 51 home / 32 away

1.37

creates per match

1.72

1.06

allows per match

2.06

creates per match

AD Guanacasteca

1.37

Deportivo Cartagena

1.72

allows per match

AD Guanacasteca

1.06

Deportivo Cartagena

2.06

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

AD Guanacasteca+0.00on par

Deportivo Cartagena+0.00on par

Total goals

Over60
Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes62
No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

AD Guanacasteca ↓

Deportivo Cartagena →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–16%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

60%40%3.5

38%62%4.5

20%80%

Double chance

AD Guanacasteca or draw

69%

AD Guanacasteca or Deportivo Cartagena

76%

Draw or Deportivo Cartagena

55%

Winning margin

AD Guanacasteca wins by 2+

24%

Deportivo Cartagena wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

AD Guanacasteca 1+ goals

82%

AD Guanacasteca 2+ goals

51%

AD Guanacasteca 3+ goals

25%

Deportivo Cartagena 1+ goals

75%

Deportivo Cartagena 2+ goals

40%

Deportivo Cartagena 3+ goals

16%

Draw no bet

AD Guanacasteca (draw refunded)

59%

Deportivo Cartagena (draw refunded)

41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

51%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

AD Guanacasteca at home — creates 1.37, concedes 1.06 · 51 matches

Deportivo Cartagena away — creates 1.72, concedes 2.06 · 32 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

AD Guanacasteca attack 1.37 + Deportivo Cartagena defence 2.06 → ÷2 → 1.72

Deportivo Cartagena attack 1.72 + AD Guanacasteca defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 1.39

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

AD Guanacasteca scores more

45%

level

24%

Deportivo Cartagena scores more

31%

AD Guanacasteca at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "AD Guanacasteca will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff