AD Fornos Algodres 0–5 Oliveira Hospital

AD Fornos Algodres

FT

0 – 5

HT: 0 – 3

Oliveira Hospital

9/10/2023

Taça de Portugal · 1st RoundEstádio Municipal Serra da Esgalhada

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

AD Fornos Algodres20%

×Draw17%

Oliveira Hospital63%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

AD Fornos AlgodresExpected goals in this matchOliveira Hospital

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.60

2.87

AD Fornos Algodres

1.60

Oliveira Hospital

2.87

Oliveira Hospital creates 79% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 5 away

1.00

creates per match

1.40

4.33

allows per match

2.20

creates per match

AD Fornos Algodres

1.00

Oliveira Hospital

1.40

allows per match

AD Fornos Algodres

4.33

Oliveira Hospital

2.20

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

AD Fornos Algodres+0.00on par

Oliveira Hospital+0.00on par

Total goals

Over82
Under18

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes75
No25

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

AD Fornos Algodres ↓

Oliveira Hospital →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–01%

0–13%

0–25%

0–35%

0–43%

1

1–02%

1–15%

1–28%

1–37%

1–45%

2

2–02%

2–14%

2–26%

2–36%

2–44%

3

3–01%

3–12%

3–23%

3–33%

3–42%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (8%) · grid covers 84% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

99%1%1.5

94%6%2.5

82%18%3.5

64%36%4.5

45%55%

Double chance

AD Fornos Algodres or draw

37%

AD Fornos Algodres or Oliveira Hospital

83%

Draw or Oliveira Hospital

80%

Winning margin

AD Fornos Algodres wins by 2+

9%

Oliveira Hospital wins by 2+

43%

Team goals

AD Fornos Algodres 1+ goals

80%

AD Fornos Algodres 2+ goals

47%

AD Fornos Algodres 3+ goals

22%

Oliveira Hospital 1+ goals

94%

Oliveira Hospital 2+ goals

77%

Oliveira Hospital 3+ goals

53%

Draw no bet

AD Fornos Algodres (draw refunded)

24%

Oliveira Hospital (draw refunded)

76%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

70%

Both score & under 3

5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

AD Fornos Algodres at home — creates 1.00, concedes 4.33 · 3 matches

Oliveira Hospital away — creates 1.40, concedes 2.20 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

AD Fornos Algodres attack 1.00 + Oliveira Hospital defence 2.20 → ÷2 → 1.60

Oliveira Hospital attack 1.40 + AD Fornos Algodres defence 4.33 → ÷2 → 2.87

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 63%?"

AD Fornos Algodres scores more

20%

level

17%

Oliveira Hospital scores more

63%

Oliveira Hospital at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "Oliveira Hospital will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff