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AD Cofutpa vs Rosario — Liga de Ascenso 2018

AD Cofutpa
AD Cofutpa
FT
3 – 0
Rosario
Rosario
11/10/2019Liga de AscensoLiga de Ascenso · Apertura - 18Estadio Jorge Palmareño Solís

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 12+ matches

AD Cofutpa51%
×Draw24%
Rosario25%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

AD Cofutpa
1.70
Rosario
1.13

AD Cofutpa creates 50% more chances

Season form · 122 home / 12 away

creates per match

AD Cofutpa
1.81
Rosario
0.75

allows per match

AD Cofutpa
1.50
Rosario
1.58

finishing

AD Cofutpa+0.00on par
Rosario+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

AD Cofutpa ↓

Rosario →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
54%46%3.5
31%69%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

AD Cofutpa or draw
75%
AD Cofutpa or Rosario
76%
Draw or Rosario
49%

Winning margin

AD Cofutpa wins by 2+
27%
Rosario wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

AD Cofutpa 1+ goals
82%
AD Cofutpa 2+ goals
51%
AD Cofutpa 3+ goals
24%
Rosario 1+ goals
68%
Rosario 2+ goals
31%
Rosario 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

AD Cofutpa (draw refunded)
67%
Rosario (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

AD Cofutpa at home — creates 1.81, concedes 1.50 · 122 matches

Rosario away — creates 0.75, concedes 1.58 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

AD Cofutpa attack 1.81 + Rosario defence 1.58 → ÷2 → 1.70

Rosario attack 0.75 + AD Cofutpa defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

AD Cofutpa scores more
51%
level
24%
Rosario scores more
25%

AD Cofutpa at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "AD Cofutpa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: AD Cofutpa vs Rosario

AD Cofutpa beat Rosario 3-0 in Liga de Ascenso on November 10, 2019.

The match was played at Estadio Jorge Palmareño Solís in Palmares.