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AD Cofutpa vs Municipal San Ramón — Liga de Ascenso 2018

AD Cofutpa
AD Cofutpa
FT
2 – 1
Municipal San Ramón
Municipal San Ramón
E. Zuniga 90+5' (OG)
B. Solorzano 8'
E. Zuniga 56'
9/13/2020Liga de AscensoLiga de Ascenso · Apertura - 2Estadio Guillermo Vargas Roldán

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

AD Cofutpa46%
×Draw25%
Municipal San Ramón29%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

AD Cofutpa
1.58
Municipal San Ramón
1.21

AD Cofutpa creates 31% more chances

Season form · 122 home / 11 away

creates per match

AD Cofutpa
1.81
Municipal San Ramón
0.91

allows per match

AD Cofutpa
1.50
Municipal San Ramón
1.36

finishing

AD Cofutpa+0.00on par
Municipal San Ramón+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

AD Cofutpa ↓

Municipal San Ramón →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
30%70%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

AD Cofutpa or draw
71%
AD Cofutpa or Municipal San Ramón
75%
Draw or Municipal San Ramón
54%

Winning margin

AD Cofutpa wins by 2+
23%
Municipal San Ramón wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

AD Cofutpa 1+ goals
79%
AD Cofutpa 2+ goals
47%
AD Cofutpa 3+ goals
21%
Municipal San Ramón 1+ goals
70%
Municipal San Ramón 2+ goals
34%
Municipal San Ramón 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

AD Cofutpa (draw refunded)
61%
Municipal San Ramón (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

AD Cofutpa at home — creates 1.81, concedes 1.50 · 122 matches

Municipal San Ramón away — creates 0.91, concedes 1.36 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

AD Cofutpa attack 1.81 + Municipal San Ramón defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.58

Municipal San Ramón attack 0.91 + AD Cofutpa defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

AD Cofutpa scores more
46%
level
25%
Municipal San Ramón scores more
29%

AD Cofutpa at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "AD Cofutpa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

8'
B. Solorzano
56'
E. Zuniga
90+5'
E. ZunigaOwn goal

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Liga de Ascenso: AD Cofutpa 2–1 Municipal San Ramón

AD Cofutpa beat Municipal San Ramón 2-1 in Liga de Ascenso on September 13, 2020.

Goals: B. Solorzano (8'), E. Zuniga (56', 90+5' o.g.).

The match was played at Estadio Guillermo Vargas Roldán in San Ramón de Alajuela.