AD Cofutpa 1–1 Escorpiones Belén: Result & Stats

AD Cofutpa

AET

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Escorpiones Belén

11/13/2022

Liga de Ascenso · Apertura - Quarter-finalsEstadio Guillermo Vargas Roldán

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 87+ matches

AD Cofutpa41%

×Draw23%

Escorpiones Belén36%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

AD CofutpaExpected goals in this matchEscorpiones Belén

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.66

1.54

AD Cofutpa

1.66

Escorpiones Belén

1.54

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 123 home / 87 away

1.80

creates per match

1.60

1.49

allows per match

1.51

creates per match

AD Cofutpa

1.80

Escorpiones Belén

1.60

allows per match

AD Cofutpa

1.49

Escorpiones Belén

1.51

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

AD Cofutpa+0.00on par

Escorpiones Belén+0.00on par

Total goals

Over62
Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes64
No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

AD Cofutpa ↓

Escorpiones Belén →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–16%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–110%

1–28%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

62%38%3.5

40%60%4.5

22%78%

Double chance

AD Cofutpa or draw

64%

AD Cofutpa or Escorpiones Belén

77%

Draw or Escorpiones Belén

59%

Winning margin

AD Cofutpa wins by 2+

21%

Escorpiones Belén wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

AD Cofutpa 1+ goals

81%

AD Cofutpa 2+ goals

49%

AD Cofutpa 3+ goals

23%

Escorpiones Belén 1+ goals

79%

Escorpiones Belén 2+ goals

45%

Escorpiones Belén 3+ goals

20%

Draw no bet

AD Cofutpa (draw refunded)

53%

Escorpiones Belén (draw refunded)

47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

53%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

AD Cofutpa at home — creates 1.80, concedes 1.49 · 123 matches

Escorpiones Belén away — creates 1.60, concedes 1.51 · 87 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

AD Cofutpa attack 1.80 + Escorpiones Belén defence 1.51 → ÷2 → 1.66

Escorpiones Belén attack 1.60 + AD Cofutpa defence 1.49 → ÷2 → 1.54

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

AD Cofutpa scores more

41%

level

23%

Escorpiones Belén scores more

36%

AD Cofutpa at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "AD Cofutpa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff