AD Cofutpa 1–0 Cariari Pococi: Result & Stats

AD Cofutpa

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Cariari Pococi

12/17/2025

Liga de Ascenso · Apertura - Semi-finals

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 107+ matches

AD Cofutpa48%

×Draw23%

Cariari Pococi29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

AD CofutpaExpected goals in this matchCariari Pococi

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.80

1.36

AD Cofutpa

1.80

Cariari Pococi

1.36

AD Cofutpa creates 32% more chances

Season form · 123 home / 107 away

1.80

creates per match

1.23

1.49

allows per match

1.80

creates per match

AD Cofutpa

1.80

Cariari Pococi

1.23

allows per match

AD Cofutpa

1.49

Cariari Pococi

1.80

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

AD Cofutpa+0.00on par

Cariari Pococi+0.00on par

Total goals

Over61
Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes62
No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

AD Cofutpa ↓

Cariari Pococi →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–16%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–110%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

61%39%3.5

39%61%4.5

21%79%

Double chance

AD Cofutpa or draw

71%

AD Cofutpa or Cariari Pococi

77%

Draw or Cariari Pococi

52%

Winning margin

AD Cofutpa wins by 2+

26%

Cariari Pococi wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

AD Cofutpa 1+ goals

83%

AD Cofutpa 2+ goals

54%

AD Cofutpa 3+ goals

27%

Cariari Pococi 1+ goals

74%

Cariari Pococi 2+ goals

39%

Cariari Pococi 3+ goals

16%

Draw no bet

AD Cofutpa (draw refunded)

62%

Cariari Pococi (draw refunded)

38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

52%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

AD Cofutpa at home — creates 1.80, concedes 1.49 · 123 matches

Cariari Pococi away — creates 1.23, concedes 1.80 · 107 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

AD Cofutpa attack 1.80 + Cariari Pococi defence 1.80 → ÷2 → 1.80

Cariari Pococi attack 1.23 + AD Cofutpa defence 1.49 → ÷2 → 1.36

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

AD Cofutpa scores more

48%

level

23%

Cariari Pococi scores more

29%

AD Cofutpa at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "AD Cofutpa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff