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AD Cofutpa vs Barrio México — Liga de Ascenso 2018

AD Cofutpa
AD Cofutpa
FT
0 – 0
Barrio México
Barrio México
2/9/2020Liga de AscensoLiga de Ascenso · Clausura - 6Estadio Jorge Palmareño Solís

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 43+ matches

AD Cofutpa41%
×Draw24%
Barrio México35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

AD Cofutpa
1.59
Barrio México
1.46

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 122 home / 43 away

creates per match

AD Cofutpa
1.81
Barrio México
1.42

allows per match

AD Cofutpa
1.50
Barrio México
1.37

finishing

AD Cofutpa+0.00on par
Barrio México+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

AD Cofutpa ↓

Barrio México →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

AD Cofutpa or draw
65%
AD Cofutpa or Barrio México
76%
Draw or Barrio México
59%

Winning margin

AD Cofutpa wins by 2+
20%
Barrio México wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

AD Cofutpa 1+ goals
80%
AD Cofutpa 2+ goals
47%
AD Cofutpa 3+ goals
21%
Barrio México 1+ goals
77%
Barrio México 2+ goals
43%
Barrio México 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

AD Cofutpa (draw refunded)
54%
Barrio México (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

AD Cofutpa at home — creates 1.81, concedes 1.50 · 122 matches

Barrio México away — creates 1.42, concedes 1.37 · 43 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

AD Cofutpa attack 1.81 + Barrio México defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 1.59

Barrio México attack 1.42 + AD Cofutpa defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.46

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

AD Cofutpa scores more
41%
level
24%
Barrio México scores more
35%

AD Cofutpa at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "AD Cofutpa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: AD Cofutpa vs Barrio México

AD Cofutpa and Barrio México drew 0-0 in Liga de Ascenso on February 9, 2020.

The match was played at Estadio Jorge Palmareño Solís in Palmares.