AD Ceuta FC 1–2 Unionistas de Salamanca

AD Ceuta FC

FT

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Unionistas de Salamanca

4/30/2023

Primera División RFEF - Group 1 · Group 1 - 34Estadio Municipal Alfonso Murube

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

AD Ceuta FC45%

×Draw26%

Unionistas de Salamanca29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

AD Ceuta FCExpected goals in this matchUnionistas de Salamanca

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.48

1.14

AD Ceuta FC

1.48

Unionistas de Salamanca

1.14

AD Ceuta FC creates 30% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 106 away

1.68

creates per match

0.91

1.37

allows per match

1.27

creates per match

AD Ceuta FC

1.68

Unionistas de Salamanca

0.91

allows per match

AD Ceuta FC

1.37

Unionistas de Salamanca

1.27

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

AD Ceuta FC+0.00on par

Unionistas de Salamanca+0.00on par

Total goals

Under51
Over49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

AD Ceuta FC ↓

Unionistas de Salamanca →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

49%51%3.5

27%73%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

AD Ceuta FC or draw

71%

AD Ceuta FC or Unionistas de Salamanca

74%

Draw or Unionistas de Salamanca

55%

Winning margin

AD Ceuta FC wins by 2+

22%

Unionistas de Salamanca wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

AD Ceuta FC 1+ goals

77%

AD Ceuta FC 2+ goals

43%

AD Ceuta FC 3+ goals

19%

Unionistas de Salamanca 1+ goals

68%

Unionistas de Salamanca 2+ goals

32%

Unionistas de Salamanca 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

AD Ceuta FC (draw refunded)

61%

Unionistas de Salamanca (draw refunded)

39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

AD Ceuta FC at home — creates 1.68, concedes 1.37 · 19 matches

Unionistas de Salamanca away — creates 0.91, concedes 1.27 · 106 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

AD Ceuta FC attack 1.68 + Unionistas de Salamanca defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.48

Unionistas de Salamanca attack 0.91 + AD Ceuta FC defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 1.14

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

AD Ceuta FC scores more

45%

level

26%

Unionistas de Salamanca scores more

29%

AD Ceuta FC at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "AD Ceuta FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff