AD Ceuta FC 3–1 SS Reyes: Result & Stats

AD Ceuta FC

FT

3 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

SS Reyes

12/8/2022

Primera División RFEF - Group 1 · Group 1 - 15Estadio Municipal Alfonso Murube

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

AD Ceuta FC46%

×Draw25%

SS Reyes29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

AD Ceuta FCExpected goals in this matchSS Reyes

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.52

1.15

AD Ceuta FC

1.52

SS Reyes

1.15

AD Ceuta FC creates 32% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 53 away

1.68

creates per match

0.92

1.37

allows per match

1.36

creates per match

AD Ceuta FC

1.68

SS Reyes

0.92

allows per match

AD Ceuta FC

1.37

SS Reyes

1.36

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

AD Ceuta FC+0.00on par

SS Reyes+0.00on par

Total goals

Under50
Over50

Close call

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

AD Ceuta FC ↓

SS Reyes →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

50%50%3.5

28%72%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

AD Ceuta FC or draw

71%

AD Ceuta FC or SS Reyes

75%

Draw or SS Reyes

54%

Winning margin

AD Ceuta FC wins by 2+

23%

SS Reyes wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

AD Ceuta FC 1+ goals

78%

AD Ceuta FC 2+ goals

45%

AD Ceuta FC 3+ goals

20%

SS Reyes 1+ goals

68%

SS Reyes 2+ goals

32%

SS Reyes 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

AD Ceuta FC (draw refunded)

61%

SS Reyes (draw refunded)

39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

AD Ceuta FC at home — creates 1.68, concedes 1.37 · 19 matches

SS Reyes away — creates 0.92, concedes 1.36 · 53 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

AD Ceuta FC attack 1.68 + SS Reyes defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.52

SS Reyes attack 0.92 + AD Ceuta FC defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

AD Ceuta FC scores more

46%

level

25%

SS Reyes scores more

29%

AD Ceuta FC at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "AD Ceuta FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff