Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

AD Ceuta FC vs Marbella — Primera División RFEF - Group 2 2019

AD Ceuta FC
AD Ceuta FC
FT
3 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Marbella
Marbella
4/19/2025Primera División RFEF - Group 2Primera División RFEF - Group 2 · Group 2 - 33Estadio Municipal Alfonso Murube

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 38+ matches

AD Ceuta FC58%
×Draw23%
Marbella19%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

AD Ceuta FC
1.77
Marbella
0.91

AD Ceuta FC creates 95% more chances

Season form · 38 home / 38 away

creates per match

AD Ceuta FC
1.66
Marbella
1.05

allows per match

AD Ceuta FC
0.76
Marbella
1.89

finishing

AD Ceuta FC+0.00on par
Marbella+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

AD Ceuta FC ↓

Marbella →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–111%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

AD Ceuta FC or draw
81%
AD Ceuta FC or Marbella
77%
Draw or Marbella
42%

Winning margin

AD Ceuta FC wins by 2+
33%
Marbella wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

AD Ceuta FC 1+ goals
83%
AD Ceuta FC 2+ goals
53%
AD Ceuta FC 3+ goals
26%
Marbella 1+ goals
60%
Marbella 2+ goals
23%
Marbella 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

AD Ceuta FC (draw refunded)
75%
Marbella (draw refunded)
25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

AD Ceuta FC at home — creates 1.66, concedes 0.76 · 38 matches

Marbella away — creates 1.05, concedes 1.89 · 38 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

AD Ceuta FC attack 1.66 + Marbella defence 1.89 → ÷2 → 1.77

Marbella attack 1.05 + AD Ceuta FC defence 0.76 → ÷2 → 0.91

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

AD Ceuta FC scores more
58%
level
23%
Marbella scores more
19%

AD Ceuta FC at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "AD Ceuta FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: AD Ceuta FC vs Marbella

AD Ceuta FC beat Marbella 3-1 in Primera División RFEF - Group 2 on April 19, 2025.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal Alfonso Murube in Ceuta.