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AD Ceuta FC vs Los Barrios — Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 2019

AD Ceuta FC
AD Ceuta FC
FT
2 – 3
HT: 1 – 2
Los Barrios
Los Barrios
1/31/2021Tercera División RFEF - Group 10Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 · Group 10 - 12Estadio Municipal Alfonso Murube

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 12+ matches

AD Ceuta FC60%
×Draw23%
Los Barrios17%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

AD Ceuta FC
1.79
Los Barrios
0.82

AD Ceuta FC creates 118% more chances

Season form · 12 home / 42 away

creates per match

AD Ceuta FC
1.58
Los Barrios
0.90

allows per match

AD Ceuta FC
0.75
Los Barrios
2.00

finishing

AD Ceuta FC+0.00on par
Los Barrios+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

AD Ceuta FC ↓

Los Barrios →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–16%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–111%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–16%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

AD Ceuta FC or draw
83%
AD Ceuta FC or Los Barrios
77%
Draw or Los Barrios
40%

Winning margin

AD Ceuta FC wins by 2+
35%
Los Barrios wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

AD Ceuta FC 1+ goals
83%
AD Ceuta FC 2+ goals
53%
AD Ceuta FC 3+ goals
26%
Los Barrios 1+ goals
56%
Los Barrios 2+ goals
20%
Los Barrios 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

AD Ceuta FC (draw refunded)
78%
Los Barrios (draw refunded)
22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

AD Ceuta FC at home — creates 1.58, concedes 0.75 · 12 matches

Los Barrios away — creates 0.90, concedes 2.00 · 42 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

AD Ceuta FC attack 1.58 + Los Barrios defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.79

Los Barrios attack 0.90 + AD Ceuta FC defence 0.75 → ÷2 → 0.82

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

AD Ceuta FC scores more
60%
level
23%
Los Barrios scores more
17%

AD Ceuta FC at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "AD Ceuta FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

AD Ceuta FC 2 – 3 Los Barrios

Los Barrios beat AD Ceuta FC 3-2 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 on January 31, 2021.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal Alfonso Murube in Ceuta.