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AD Ceuta FC vs Atlético Madrid II — Primera División RFEF - Group 2 2019

AD Ceuta FC
AD Ceuta FC
FT
4 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Atlético Madrid II
Atlético Madrid II
5/18/2024Primera División RFEF - Group 2Primera División RFEF - Group 2 · Group 2 - 37Estadio Municipal Alfonso Murube

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 38+ matches

AD Ceuta FC48%
×Draw26%
Atlético Madrid II25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

AD Ceuta FC
1.46
Atlético Madrid II
0.97

AD Ceuta FC creates 51% more chances

Season form · 38 home / 57 away

creates per match

AD Ceuta FC
1.66
Atlético Madrid II
1.19

allows per match

AD Ceuta FC
0.76
Atlético Madrid II
1.26

finishing

AD Ceuta FC+0.00on par
Atlético Madrid II+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

AD Ceuta FC ↓

Atlético Madrid II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

AD Ceuta FC or draw
75%
AD Ceuta FC or Atlético Madrid II
74%
Draw or Atlético Madrid II
52%

Winning margin

AD Ceuta FC wins by 2+
24%
Atlético Madrid II wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

AD Ceuta FC 1+ goals
77%
AD Ceuta FC 2+ goals
43%
AD Ceuta FC 3+ goals
18%
Atlético Madrid II 1+ goals
62%
Atlético Madrid II 2+ goals
25%
Atlético Madrid II 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

AD Ceuta FC (draw refunded)
66%
Atlético Madrid II (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

AD Ceuta FC at home — creates 1.66, concedes 0.76 · 38 matches

Atlético Madrid II away — creates 1.19, concedes 1.26 · 57 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

AD Ceuta FC attack 1.66 + Atlético Madrid II defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.46

Atlético Madrid II attack 1.19 + AD Ceuta FC defence 0.76 → ÷2 → 0.97

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

AD Ceuta FC scores more
48%
level
26%
Atlético Madrid II scores more
25%

AD Ceuta FC at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "AD Ceuta FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Primera División RFEF - Group 2: AD Ceuta FC 4–0 Atlético Madrid II

AD Ceuta FC beat Atlético Madrid II 4-0 in Primera División RFEF - Group 2 on May 18, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal Alfonso Murube in Ceuta.